Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 17 2019 - 12Z Sun Jul 21 2019 ...Tropical Storm Barry to weaken and dissipate prior to this extended period with remnants to fuel some Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast heavy rains Wednesday/Thursday... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Louisiana Saturday afternoon and is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate by Monday evening over Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley, prior to the start of the extended forecast. The low will become devoid of tropical characteristics and will be absorbed in the westerly flow through midweek. Heavier rain associated with the remnants of Barry will spread across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Over the northern states a quasi-zonal flow pattern will develop. A series of hard to time disturbances will pass through southern Canada and the U.S. northern tier states all next week. Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy convection/MCS activity will sporatically develop and propogate within a wavy frontal/baroclinic zone across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes region, then into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast. There will likely be multiple periods where rainfall amounts/or rates become locally excessive as the moisture and instability pooling frontal boundary stalls over the region. Summertime ridging over southern and central portions of the U.S. will spread over much of the Southwest and Southern and Central Rockies. These areas are mainly expected to be mostly warmer and drier through this coming week. Some locations may tie or set new daily high minimum records. Heat indices will be around 105 to 115F, which may lead to some future issuance of heat advisories. Overall, a blend of the reasonably well clustered 06 UTC GFS/GEFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF offers a good first basis for this medium range forecast. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml