Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019
Valid 12Z Sun Jul 28 2019 - 12Z Thu Aug 01 2019
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
A strong upper high will slowly migrate out of the Southwest and
into the southern Rockies next week. Troughing will develop
downstream over the East Coast but with heights near to above
normal CONUS-wide. Generally weak surface fronts will traverse the
US/Canadian border with area-wide light/modest rainfall but with
locally heavier amounts. The models/ensembles agreed fairly well
with each other such that a consensus blend approach served well
as a starting point.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Above average temperatures in much of the West and Northeast will
shift to the east through the week. This will bring warmer
temperatures to the Plains/Upper Midwest with cooler than average
temperatures into the Pacific Northwest thanks to an incoming
front. Precipitation will be focused along and to the south of a
wavy front stretched from the Rockies Sunday to the Great
Lakes/Northeast Mon/Tue where it may linger into Thursday.
Weak/dissipating front over Florida will boost afternoon
convection there while the Southwest will see an increase in
monsoonal-driven showers/storms as the upper high moves to the
east of Arizona, allowing Mexican moisture to advect northward.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml