Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019 Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2019 - 12Z Mon Dec 02 2019 ...Increasing confidence in a major winter storm impacting the Thanksgiving Holiday and following weekend from the Northern Plains to Upper Great Lakes... ...Patter overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The medium range period begins Thursday with the first major storm system exiting the Northeast while anomalous (500mb heights 3 to 4 standard deviations below normal) and very amplified troughing/closed upper low is situated along the West Coast. The Western U.S. system is the main system of interest in the medium range period as it slowly meanders over the Western U.S., eventually shifting eastward as vigorous short wave energy ejects out of the Rockies around Day 5/Saturday. This will induce cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies and a rather potent surface low tracking from the Central Plains to the Northeast, day 5-7. This system appears to take a very similar, albeit slower, track to the previous system now in the short range period. For days 3-4, the models show good enough agreement to warrant a majority deterministic model blend. After this, questions begin to arise mainly on timing of the shortwave energy ejecting into the Central Plains and a tightly closed upper low forming and tracking towards the Upper Great Lakes. The GFS has been the most consistent both with timing and intensity of this feature. The latest run (12z/Nov 24) of the ECMWF is quite a bit faster than the GFS, though run-to-run continuity is poor. It atleast appears the ECMWF may be trending in the direction of the GFS though, which lends to a bit more confidence in the GFS solution. Meanwhile, the CMC and UKMET (which of course is not available past day 5) are much slower than the GFS, not actually ejecting the energy into the Plains until almost a full day later. The ensemble means are generally in good agreement and support a solution closer to that of the faster GFS/ECMWF and is a good middle ground between the two as well. After day 5, the WPC progs trended towards the ECENS/GEFS means, with small contributions from the GFS to help give some definition to the typically washed out look of the means. This maintains good continuity as well with the previous WPC forecast. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Heavy mountain snows are likely across parts of the Central Great Basin and Rockies Thursday and Friday, with snow levels expected to drop significantly. Additionally, another round of heavy rainfall with a threat for runoff problems is likely across Southern CA and the Southwest (including burn scars) late in the week. As the surface low moves out into the Plains, a swath of heavy to potentially significant snowfall is possible to the north and west of the low from the Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Depending on surface low intensity, a period of heavy winds could accompany this system making for hazardous travel across this region during the upcoming busy Holiday weekend. Across the South, shortwave energies tapping into mid-upper level moisture from the tropical East Pacific will result in heavy to possibly excessive rains shifting from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley along and ahead of the main cold front. The biggest temperature anomalies will focus across the Western U.S. through much of the period with daytime highs averaging as much as 20 to 25 degrees below normal for some places. In response, temperatures will be warm and above average from Texas to the Gulf Coast states and into the Ohio Valley Friday and Saturday, trending cooler by the end of the period following the cold front passage. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml