Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 - 12Z Mon Sep 06 2021
...Ida Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat to spread from the
Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England Thursday...
...Nora lead moisture to fuel Southwest U.S./Rockies Heavy Rain
threat into Thursday...
...Emerging late week locally heavy convective rainfall pattern
for the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of the NBM along with emphasis with the
CMC/ECWMF/EC ensembles as they handled the heavy rain areas
associated with NHC tropical tracks for Nora and Ida fairly well.
...Pattern Overview with Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Ida is still forecast to be a well organized post-tropical cyclone
that will be lifting from the Mid-Atlantic to offshore southern
New England early in the extended period. Uncertain interaction
from northern stream energies may alter Ida's track as it pulls
offshore the New England coast. Deep tropical moisture wrapping
into the low, within the right entrance region of a potent upper
jet, will spread moderate to heavy rainfall across parts of the
Northeast. Cell training and terrain will significantly enhance
the runoff/flood threat within a well defined precipitation axis.
There may be an increased threat for flash flooding for this part
of the country.
Nora is expected to be history before the extended forecast
begins, however the remnant moisture aloft will transport
northward into Arizona, New Mexico and points to the north.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the Southwest
U.S./Rockies into Thursday before the airmass begins to dry.
Elsewhere, ample northern stream upper troughing will meanwhile
dig a wavy and modestly unsettling/cooling front through the West
and downstream across the north-central states. Upper dynamics and
frontal convergence/progression should act to focus some locally
heavy convection/rainfall as enhanced by embedded impulses/frontal
waves as fueled by instability and frontal moisture pooling,
including some monsoonal influx Thursday and Friday. There may be
enhanced rainfall that setups up over the Dakotas and parts of
Minnesota and Iowa.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml