Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EST Wed Feb 02 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 05 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022
...Overview...
The medium range period starts out Saturday with broad troughing
across much of the CONUS, sandwiched between a building east
Pacific ridge and a retreating ridge into the west-central
Atlantic. Within the mean flow to begin the period, multiple
northern-stream shortwaves should be present -- one exiting the
Northeast, another weakening over the Deep South, and a third
diving into the northern Rockies. The last shortwave should
amplify by early next week with a positively tilted trough
stretched from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains, which is
forecast to translate eastward and initiate modest cyclogenesis
off the East Coast. Meanwhile, strong ridging will build in across
the West before dropping southward as the next shortwave moves
across the northern tier by the midweek.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The latest suite of models and ensembles continue to show enough
agreement for a general deterministic model blend for the day 3-4
(Saturday-Sunday) time period. Afterwards, growing shortwave
timing and phasing differences between the northern and southern
streams over the Southwest U.S. and northern Plains prompted a
mean ensemble approach to the forecast, which maintained decent
continuity with the overnight medium range forecast.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Much of the CONUS should be uneventful and mostly dry through
early next week at least in terms of any notable weather threats.
Periodic shower activity is possible across the Southeast
associated with an offshore frontal wave to close out the weekend.
However, continued guidance differences leads to low confidence in
the coverage and amounts of precipitation over the region. Enough
cold air however does offer the potential for some swaths of
wintry weather on the inland northwest periphery of any kind of
surface low development off the east coast, with the best
potential for any kind of light activity on Sunday over the
Carolinas or southern Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, northern tier
systems will bring periods of light and scattered snow from the
upper Midwest to Great Lakes while mostly light rain/mountain snow
should accompany a couple of systems brushing the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies.
Much below normal temperatures, with daytime highs as much as 10
to 20 degrees below normal, will continue through the weekend
across parts of Texas, with less extreme, but still below normal,
values extending eastward to the East Coast. Single digit lows
over the Southern Plains could challenge a few longstanding
records on Saturday. After Sunday, temperatures across this region
should moderate back towards normal. A welcome relief from the
cold in the short range period, the northern to central Plains
should remain above normal through the entire medium range period,
with the warmest anomalies (+20-25F) during the first half of next
week as upper level ridging moves in. Meanwhile, the western U.S.
should trend warmer as well under the influence of eastern Pacific
ridging making its way onshore.
Asherman/Santorelli
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml