Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EST Wed Feb 02 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 05 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022 ...Overview... The medium range period starts out Saturday with broad troughing across much of the CONUS, sandwiched between a building east Pacific ridge and a retreating ridge into the west-central Atlantic. Within the mean flow to begin the period, multiple northern-stream shortwaves should be present -- one exiting the Northeast, another weakening over the Deep South, and a third diving into the northern Rockies. The last shortwave should amplify by early next week with a positively tilted trough stretched from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains, which is forecast to translate eastward and initiate modest cyclogenesis off the East Coast. Meanwhile, strong ridging will build in across the West before dropping southward as the next shortwave moves across the northern tier by the midweek. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The latest suite of models and ensembles continue to show enough agreement for a general deterministic model blend for the day 3-4 (Saturday-Sunday) time period. Afterwards, growing shortwave timing and phasing differences between the northern and southern streams over the Southwest U.S. and northern Plains prompted a mean ensemble approach to the forecast, which maintained decent continuity with the overnight medium range forecast. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Much of the CONUS should be uneventful and mostly dry through early next week at least in terms of any notable weather threats. Periodic shower activity is possible across the Southeast associated with an offshore frontal wave to close out the weekend. However, continued guidance differences leads to low confidence in the coverage and amounts of precipitation over the region. Enough cold air however does offer the potential for some swaths of wintry weather on the inland northwest periphery of any kind of surface low development off the east coast, with the best potential for any kind of light activity on Sunday over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, northern tier systems will bring periods of light and scattered snow from the upper Midwest to Great Lakes while mostly light rain/mountain snow should accompany a couple of systems brushing the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Much below normal temperatures, with daytime highs as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal, will continue through the weekend across parts of Texas, with less extreme, but still below normal, values extending eastward to the East Coast. Single digit lows over the Southern Plains could challenge a few longstanding records on Saturday. After Sunday, temperatures across this region should moderate back towards normal. A welcome relief from the cold in the short range period, the northern to central Plains should remain above normal through the entire medium range period, with the warmest anomalies (+20-25F) during the first half of next week as upper level ridging moves in. Meanwhile, the western U.S. should trend warmer as well under the influence of eastern Pacific ridging making its way onshore. Asherman/Santorelli Hazards: - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the central/southern Plains, the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, and through much of the interior Northeast, Sat-Sun, Feb 5-Feb 6. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the southern Rockies and the southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Feb 5-Feb 7. Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml