Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 153 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 7 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 11 2022 ...Overview... The overall theme for this forecast period will be a West Coast ridge and broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the nation, with multiple northern stream shortwaves/clipper systems reinforcing the trough for much of next week, and a surface low developing off the East Coast through Tuesday. An anomalous closed upper high evolves just off the West Coast for the second half of next week as part of a +PNA pattern, and this favors a broad trough east of the Rockies with mainly dry conditions for most locations. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The latest deterministic model guidance and ensemble means are generally in above average agreement through the first half of the week, with some minor timing differences noted with the individual shortwaves east of the Rockies. The 00Z GFS trended more amplified with a shortwave approaching the East Coast along with a secondary wave of low pressure that is not well supported by the other guidance, whereas the 18Z GFS was more in line with the latest ECMWF and CMC. By the end of the week, the latest GFS is quite strong with a closed low over the Great Lakes region and does not have as much ensemble support as the 18Z GFS does. The ECMWF is also a bit farther east with the ridge axis across the western U.S. by the end of the forecast period compared to the CMC/GFS, but otherwise in line with the ensemble means across the central/eastern U.S. The WPC fronts/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a multi-deterministic (including 18Z GFS) through Tuesday night, before incorporating more of the ensemble means for the second half of the week. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... A developing low pressure system off the North Carolina coast early in the week is likely to be close enough to produce a cold rain across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and the Carolinas through early Tuesday, with the potential for a rain/snow mix on the northwestern edge of this precipitation. This may also clip eastern New England depending on the eventual track of the surface low, so this event will continued to be monitored for future trends, and this forecast cycle has trended slightly upward with QPF compared to yesterday. Elsewhere across the nation, mainly dry conditions are expected for most areas, with the exception of some rain/mountain snow for western Washington early in the week, and patchy areas of light rain/snow across portions of the north-central U.S. and the Great Lakes region in association with the clipper systems. Temperatures are expected to generally be slightly below normal across much of the south-central U.S. for the beginning of the week, albeit on a moderating trend compared to the well below average readings expected this weekend. Readings across the central and northern Plains are likely to be 10-20 degrees above average, and near average for most of the East Coast region through the middle of the week. Above average temperatures can be expected for the entire week for the West Coast region owing to the large upper ridge in place across the eastern Pacific. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml