Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 7 2022 - 12Z Fri Feb 11 2022
...Overview...
The overall theme for this forecast period will be a West Coast
ridge and broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the
nation, with multiple northern stream shortwaves/clipper systems
reinforcing the trough for much of next week, and a surface low
developing off the East Coast through Tuesday. An anomalous
closed upper high evolves just off the West Coast for the second
half of next week as part of a +PNA pattern, and this favors a
broad trough east of the Rockies with mainly dry conditions for
most locations.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model guidance and ensemble means are
generally in above average agreement through the first half of the
week, with some minor timing differences noted with the individual
shortwaves east of the Rockies. The 00Z GFS trended more
amplified with a shortwave approaching the East Coast along with a
secondary wave of low pressure that is not well supported by the
other guidance, whereas the 18Z GFS was more in line with the
latest ECMWF and CMC. By the end of the week, the latest GFS is
quite strong with a closed low over the Great Lakes region and
does not have as much ensemble support as the 18Z GFS does. The
ECMWF is also a bit farther east with the ridge axis across the
western U.S. by the end of the forecast period compared to the
CMC/GFS, but otherwise in line with the ensemble means across the
central/eastern U.S.
The WPC fronts/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a
multi-deterministic (including 18Z GFS) through Tuesday night,
before incorporating more of the ensemble means for the second
half of the week.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
A developing low pressure system off the North Carolina coast
early in the week is likely to be close enough to produce a cold
rain across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and the
Carolinas through early Tuesday, with the potential for a
rain/snow mix on the northwestern edge of this precipitation.
This may also clip eastern New England depending on the eventual
track of the surface low, so this event will continued to be
monitored for future trends, and this forecast cycle has trended
slightly upward with QPF compared to yesterday. Elsewhere across
the nation, mainly dry conditions are expected for most areas,
with the exception of some rain/mountain snow for western
Washington early in the week, and patchy areas of light rain/snow
across portions of the north-central U.S. and the Great Lakes
region in association with the clipper systems.
Temperatures are expected to generally be slightly below normal
across much of the south-central U.S. for the beginning of the
week, albeit on a moderating trend compared to the well below
average readings expected this weekend. Readings across the
central and northern Plains are likely to be 10-20 degrees above
average, and near average for most of the East Coast region
through the middle of the week. Above average temperatures can be
expected for the entire week for the West Coast region owing to
the large upper ridge in place across the eastern Pacific.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml