Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 8 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022 ...Overview... The overall theme for this forecast period remains a West Coast ridge and broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the nation. There will be a few northern stream shortwaves/clipper systems reinforcing the trough for much of next week, and a surface low developing off the East Coast through Tuesday night. An anomalous closed upper high evolves just off the West Coast for the second half of next week as part of a +PNA pattern, and this favors a broad trough east of the Rockies with mainly dry conditions for most locations through next Saturday. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The latest deterministic model guidance and ensemble means are generally in reasonable agreement with the upper-pattern through the first half of the medium range forecast period, with some minor timing differences noted with the individual shortwaves east of the Rockies. By next weekend, more noteworthy timing differences exist with a shortwave trough dropping south from western Canada, with the CMC/ECMWF solutions faster than the GFS, while there is still good agreement on the strength of the West Coast upper ridge. To account for the increasing uncertainty with shortwave timing across the central/eastern U.S. for Friday/Saturday, a majority of the ensemble means was used as a starting point in the forecast process, whereas a multi-deterministic blend worked well for the middle of the week. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... A developing low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast early in the week is likely to be close enough to produce a cold rain across eastern portions of New England and perhaps some snow for inland locations, depending on the eventual track of the surface low, so this event will continued to be monitored for future trends. Elsewhere across the nation, mainly dry conditions are expected for most areas, with the exception of some patchy areas of light snow over the Great Lakes region in association with the clipper systems, and some showers near the east coast of Florida with post-frontal onshore flow. Temperatures are expected to generally be near to slightly below normal across much of the south-central U.S. and the East Coast region for the middle of the week, and this is a moderating trend compared to the well below average readings expected this weekend for many areas. Readings across the central and northern Plains are expected to be about 10-20 degrees above average, and this can also be expected for the entire week for the West Coast region owing to the large upper ridge encroaching from the eastern Pacific. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml