Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 8 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022
...Overview...
The overall theme for this forecast period remains a West Coast
ridge and broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern half of the
nation. There will be a few northern stream shortwaves/clipper
systems reinforcing the trough for much of next week, and a
surface low developing off the East Coast through Tuesday night.
An anomalous closed upper high evolves just off the West Coast for
the second half of next week as part of a +PNA pattern, and this
favors a broad trough east of the Rockies with mainly dry
conditions for most locations through next Saturday.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model guidance and ensemble means are
generally in reasonable agreement with the upper-pattern through
the first half of the medium range forecast period, with some
minor timing differences noted with the individual shortwaves east
of the Rockies. By next weekend, more noteworthy timing
differences exist with a shortwave trough dropping south from
western Canada, with the CMC/ECMWF solutions faster than the GFS,
while there is still good agreement on the strength of the West
Coast upper ridge. To account for the increasing uncertainty with
shortwave timing across the central/eastern U.S. for
Friday/Saturday, a majority of the ensemble means was used as a
starting point in the forecast process, whereas a
multi-deterministic blend worked well for the middle of the week.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
A developing low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast early
in the week is likely to be close enough to produce a cold rain
across eastern portions of New England and perhaps some snow for
inland locations, depending on the eventual track of the surface
low, so this event will continued to be monitored for future
trends. Elsewhere across the nation, mainly dry conditions are
expected for most areas, with the exception of some patchy areas
of light snow over the Great Lakes region in association with the
clipper systems, and some showers near the east coast of Florida
with post-frontal onshore flow.
Temperatures are expected to generally be near to slightly below
normal across much of the south-central U.S. and the East Coast
region for the middle of the week, and this is a moderating trend
compared to the well below average readings expected this weekend
for many areas. Readings across the central and northern Plains
are expected to be about 10-20 degrees above average, and this can
also be expected for the entire week for the West Coast region
owing to the large upper ridge encroaching from the eastern
Pacific.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml