Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 27 2022 - 12Z Thu Mar 03 2022
...Pattern Overview...
Overall cold and drier conditions are slated for much of the lower
48 states this weekend into early next week to be followed by
broad moderation of temperatures spreading from the West to the
East early through mid next week in transition to less amplified
upper level flow.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of the 18 UTC GFS/GEFS mean, the 12 UTC
ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean and the 01 UTC National Blend of Models
in a pattern with near average predictability. Models and
ensembles offer a reasonably similar larger scale pattern
evolution, but continue to offer run to run continuity issues and
variance with smaller scale embedded weather features. Composite
blending tends to mitigate these differences consistent with their
varied individual predictability. The strategy acts to maintain
max WPC product continuity and a composite of latest 00 UTC model
and ensemble guidance remains generally supportive.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Cold high pressure will settle across much of the country by this
weekend into next week. The weather pattern will favor drier
conditions. However, northern stream impulses will likely produce
periodic light northern tier snows from the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes through the Northeast. Also expect a swath of modest
precipitation will traverse the Southeast into Sunday/Monday. This
will be mainly in the form of light to moderate cold rains, but
with some snow/ice threat on the northern periphery of the swath
of precipitation. In addition, precipitation will to develop for
the Pacific Northwest/Northern CA this weekend with slow approach
of northeast Pacific systems. Precipitation totals are forecast to
increase over the Pacific Northwest/northern CA and increasingly
spread across the northwestern states through early and mid next
week with upper trough and associated lead frontal system approach
and passage. This pattern will including locally terrain enhancing
heavier snows.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml