Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 18 2022 - 12Z Tue Mar 22 2022
...Overview...
A relatively progressive flow pattern with increasing amplitude is
expected to be in place across the continental U.S. through the
upcoming weekend. The initial system over the Central Plains
Friday will be tracking northeastward to the Great Lakes and then
the Northeast through Sunday. By late in the weekend to next
Monday, a much stronger and amplified trough will progress across
the western U.S., and then reaching the Plains by late Monday and
into Tuesday, with the overall pattern becoming a bit less
progressive by then. This will likely bring widespread,
beneficial rains to the western U.S., and evolve into a
potentially strong storm system by the end of the forecast period.
No significant arctic air intrusions are currently expected, and
temperatures will generally oscillate between near normal and well
above normal ahead of the various waves of low pressure.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
Overall, the 12Z model guidance suite indicates good synoptic
scale agreement on the main features of interest, including the
large upper level trough developing over the Intermountain West
and then the Plains early next week. However, it is worth noting
that the past few runs of the GFS have been to the northwest of
the model consensus with the surface low tracking across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region during the Friday to Saturday time
period, with the latest run edging closer to the preferred
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET cluster of solutions. The GFS is also slightly
stronger with the amplifying western trough, but similar in regard
to timing. The associated surface low that evolves over the
Central Plains will likely be on the stronger side of the model
guidance, and the GFS probably captures the intensity best
compared to the slightly weaker CMC/ECMWF solutions.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
The next system moving across the Plains could bring some moderate
to locally heavy rainfall as well as potential winter weather on
the northwest/cold side of the low, though the aforementioned
model differences and marginally supportive thermal profiles for
winter weather will keep the latest Winter Weather Outlook for Day
4 generally low. Finally, the active/unsettled weather for the
western U.S. toward the end of the weekend and early next week
will be mostly beneficial and welcomed precipitation across
drought stricken areas. There will be the potential for heavy
rain to develop across portions of the Southern Plains early next
week as this storm system taps into increasing Gulf moisture.
Temperatures look to be mostly near to above normal, ahead of the
various waves of low pressure. Some dips to below normal readings
are possible across the West and interior West as the next large
scale weather system moves through owing to clouds and
precipitation.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml