Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Fri Mar 25 2022
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 28 2022 - 12Z Fri Apr 01 2022
...Overview...
An amplified upper trough and lingering wintry weather will exit
the northeastern U.S. by early next week, leaving a cooled airmass
down across the north-central through eastern states. The main
weather focus across the nation will shift to the West as a strong
upper trough and embedded closed low progress into/through the
Southwestern states early next week before lifting across the
south-central Rockies/Plains midweek. There is then a growing
guidance trend to increase phasing with northern stream trough
energies over the east-central U.S. into next Thursday/Friday that
would also promote more organized surface low and frontal
development and strength. Overall, this will favor rather
unsettled and wet pattern from CA and the Southwest to the
south-central Rockies early next week (including mountain snows)
that will emerge, expand in magnitude and spread from Plains to
the east-central and eastern/southeastern U.S. later next week as
Gulf moisutre increasing feeds into the system.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
A composite of reasonably well clustered guidance from the 18 UTC
GFS and 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian seems to offer a good forecast
basis Monday into Wednesday. Forecast spread increases by later
Wednesday into next Friday, but has improved a bit from yesterday.
Of the ensemble systems, the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean provides
the most reasonable midpoint solution between more varied models
are these longer time frames. The WPC medium range product suite
was primarily derived from preferred guidance along with the 01
UTC National Blend of Models. This solution seems in line with
latest guidance trends and maintains good product continuity.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Model guidance shows the heaviest rain totals for southern
California into Monday especially enhanced by higher terrain,
which could cause flooding issues if heavy rain falls over burn
scar areas. Rain and higher elevation snow will spread across the
Intermountain West and Rockies Monday and Tuesday. As surface low
pressure strengthens in the Plains and tracks east, more
widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely for the
southern/eastern Plains and mid-lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
and Wednesday. Meanwhile on the northern side of the precipitation
shield, a wintry mix and accumulating wrapping snows are possible
for the northern tier, mainly from the Upper Midwest the the Great
Lakes and northern tier of the Northeast. Rainfall could remain
heavy through the east and especiallly the Southeast later next
week.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml