Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 01 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 05 2022
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
There continues to be some run to run differences in the timing
and strengthen of individual features over the next week. As a
whole, the general pattern has an initial low exiting across the
East with multiple waves digging across the West that are well
clustered. Today's suite of products primarily used a combination
of the ECWMF/GFS and their respective ensemble means; with an
initial weighting of 60/40 deterministic to ensemble means to
ending with 100% ensemble means. This reduced some of the noise
and followed continuity.
...Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats...
A deep cyclone will be lifting through eastern Canada Friday which
will allow persistent high winds and areas of wrapping snow in the
wake of the low, primarily east of the Great Lakes and the
Northeast. The trailing front front this low will move out over
the Atlantic Ocean with the southern extent slowing/stalling over
the Southeast U.S, the Gulf and into Mexico. Scattered to
widespread showers are expected near the front, particularly
across Florida and the Gulf coast through Saturday and then will
taper off.
Across the West, a series of upper troughs and low pressure
systems are expected track through with varying degrees of
uncertainty within the model guidance. These systems are expected
to bring an increase in precipitation potential for the Pacific
Northwest and modest snow for the north-central Intermountain
West/Rockies. There is a growing trend for scattered to widespread
convection to develop over the Central/Southern Plains as the
systems exit into the central U.S. before spreading to the
Mid-Atlantic/Appalachian region by the end of the extended period.
Moderate rainfall will likely materialize within the deeper return
moisture as it focuses into wavy fronts and a stalled lead front.
Heavy downpours will be likely from the Gulf Coast to the
Southeast into the weekend.
By early next week there is also a growing guidance signal to
bring more energetic Pacific jet flow toward the West Coast. This
may transport deeper moisture to fuel and emerging precipitation
pattern focus into the Pacific Northwest to include heavy terrain
enhancing snows.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml