Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 303 PM EDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 01 2022 - 12Z Tue Apr 05 2022 ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... There continues to be some run to run differences in the timing and strengthen of individual features over the next week. As a whole, the general pattern has an initial low exiting across the East with multiple waves digging across the West that are well clustered. Today's suite of products primarily used a combination of the ECWMF/GFS and their respective ensemble means; with an initial weighting of 60/40 deterministic to ensemble means to ending with 100% ensemble means. This reduced some of the noise and followed continuity. ...Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats... A deep cyclone will be lifting through eastern Canada Friday which will allow persistent high winds and areas of wrapping snow in the wake of the low, primarily east of the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The trailing front front this low will move out over the Atlantic Ocean with the southern extent slowing/stalling over the Southeast U.S, the Gulf and into Mexico. Scattered to widespread showers are expected near the front, particularly across Florida and the Gulf coast through Saturday and then will taper off. Across the West, a series of upper troughs and low pressure systems are expected track through with varying degrees of uncertainty within the model guidance. These systems are expected to bring an increase in precipitation potential for the Pacific Northwest and modest snow for the north-central Intermountain West/Rockies. There is a growing trend for scattered to widespread convection to develop over the Central/Southern Plains as the systems exit into the central U.S. before spreading to the Mid-Atlantic/Appalachian region by the end of the extended period. Moderate rainfall will likely materialize within the deeper return moisture as it focuses into wavy fronts and a stalled lead front. Heavy downpours will be likely from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast into the weekend. By early next week there is also a growing guidance signal to bring more energetic Pacific jet flow toward the West Coast. This may transport deeper moisture to fuel and emerging precipitation pattern focus into the Pacific Northwest to include heavy terrain enhancing snows. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml