Using model guidance to forecast QPF

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Heavy precipitation forecasting,  using numerical models.

1)

Uncertainty in the initial conditions.

2)

Ensembles,  an introduction.

3)

GFS Model

4)

Terrain and resolution issues

5)

The NAM

6)

Using climatological anomalies to predict extreme rainfall events

A)

An example of how you might use anomalies to make a forecast.

B)

Another case...using ensemble guidance and standardized anomalies. 

C)