TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT FRI MAR 17 2023

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 17 MAR 2023 AT 19 UTC: A SURFACE FRONT IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO A LOW NEAR 22N
95W...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TABASCO...CHIVELA
PASS...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST
CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM  IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN
PUEBLA...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN OAXACA/TABASCO/CHIAPAS
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN SQUALLY WEATHER. BY
SUNDAY...THE DIVERGENT TIER OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STIMULATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN NORTHWEST CUBA AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH...SHORT WAVE VORTICES ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ARRIVE INTO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
OF SOUTHERN SONORA...AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN EASTERN CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN COAHUILA...THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET WILL STIMULATE ASCENT AND FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.  ON SATURDAY EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF SONORA AND
SINALOA...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE EAST
OF THE SIERRA ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN COAHUILA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHILE IN
NORTHERN COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON/TAMAULIPAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

A SURFACE FRONT IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY EVENING...TO WEAKEN NEAR DOMINICA ON
SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE ROBUST MOIST PLUME
WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SQUALLY WEATHER. ON SATURDAY EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN JAMAICA AND CENTRAL
CUBA...WHILE IN THE CAYMEN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN SQUALLY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY
THE MOIS PLUME IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO CUBA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO FEED THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL CONVECTION.
IN CENTRAL CUBA AND JAMAICA...THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AS MOIST PLUME REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PROVIDE SOME
ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NORTHERN EL SALVADOR AND MOST OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...ALTHOUGH IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND BELIZE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SUNDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM FROM WESTERN HONDURAS/NORTHERN EL SALVADOR INTO
BELIZE/GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS AND TABASCO.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AMAZON BASIN AND IN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA WHERE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN HIGH...BUT AS VENTILATION
DECREASES AND THE CURRENT UPPER DIVERGENT MJO FADES...EXPECT A
DECREASING TREND. IN COLOMBIA EXPECT AMOUNTS TO DECREASE FROM
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM BY SUNDAY. SIMILARLY...EXPECT A DECREASE FROM
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM TO MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN THE
CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)