TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025

FORECAST BULLETIN 15 JANUARY 2025 AT 20 UTC

THE MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A ROBUST ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE ALONG
18-24N...FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO AREAS EAST OF 55W. THIS RIDGE
ASSOCIATES WITH A ROBUST TRADE WIND INVERSION IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. YET...NOTICE THAT
MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL ASSOCIATE
WITH A WEAKENING OF THE INVERSION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
SURFACE FRONTS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT A FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEST
OF THIS REGION EXPECT A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE RIO BRAVO
DELTA...EXTENDING A FRONT INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF CUBA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO A WEAKENING
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY EVENING
EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 20N 65W... NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEAST CUBA...INTO WEST CUBA. IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
TO DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO FAVOR CONVECTION IN
WEST CUBA WHERE...IN INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM BY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. NOTE THAT A WEAKENING
OF THE TRADE WIND CAP COULD FAVOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TWO ELONGATED SHEAR LINES EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE ABC ISLANDS/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA.
THESE ARE STIMULATING PRECIPITATION LOCALLY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE. EXPECT
VERY CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER ON THURSDAY...THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES TO FAVOR AN INCREASE
TO A MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM IN THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE ABC ISLANDS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE SOUTHERN SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE
WHILE THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MEANDERS INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A MOIST PLUME PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL STILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN THE ABC ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECT A DECREASING
TREND PAST THURSDAY AS THE BULK OF HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXITS WESTWARD.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY DRY AIR MASS
PRESENT IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST PANAMA TO FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY
IN THE 20 - 40MM RANGE. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS COASTAL
ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE ITCZ
CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ON A DAILY
BASIS. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY DISCRETE AND MAXIMA WILL LIKELY LIMIT TO 20 -
40MM IN ECUADOR ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ON A DAILY
BASIS...AND TO 20 - 35MM IN COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.


GALVEZ...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)