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Tropical Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1052Z May 24, 2017)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
652 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 24/06
UTC: MID LEVEL HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO ANCHORS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/ SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SUSTAINS
A TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT LOW
LEVELS...A HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ANCHORS A BROAD CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FAVORS AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES INTO PUERTO
RICO/HISPANIOLA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL...AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS
TO THEN INDUCE THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THIS EVOLVES INTO A TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES ON
FRIDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL THEN PRESS AGAINST THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST...RESULTING IN EROSION/WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS CAP.
THIS...IN-TURN...WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WILL THEN FEED AN INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MOST ACTIVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AS ENHANCED BY
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL HEATING. THIS PATTERN IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...LEADING TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

GAJADHAR...SLMS (SAINT LUCIA)
SUBRATH-ALI...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)