Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 PM EST Tue Nov 04 2025

Forecast Bulletin 04 November 2025 at 1940 UTC:

The Bahamas and Caribbean:

Relatively calm conditions are expected for most of The Bahamas
and the Caribbean for the forecast period due to the presence of
dry air, although some showers and thunderstorms are likely to
occur each day with the presence of easterly flow, local effects
and diurnal heating.

A stationary front  from the central Bahamas and extending into
Cuba, is likely to bring some precipitation in the region from
today through Thursday, as it increases the precipitable water
available in the area and enhances northeasterly flow. Some upper
level support is expected particularly today over western Cuba
with the enhancement of divergence along the periphery of an upper
level high south of Cuba and an upper level trough southwest of
the Florida panhandle. Some precipitation will continue over the
Bahamas from Wednesday through Thursday, as the front remains over
the region. As remnants of the front remain over Cuba, some
precipitation is still expected from Wednesday through Thursday,
as  upper level divergence will continue  western Cuba with an
upper level trough propagating eastward from Mexico, and the
divergent side of the trough approaches the region. Less
precipitation is expected from Thursday through Friday, as deep
moisture decreases in the region.

An easterly wave currently located around 62W near the Lesser
Antilles may bring some instability into the region, increasing
chances of precipitation as it propagates, although strong
convective activity might be limited due to the lack of deep
moisture available. The wave will bring some light rain to Puerto
Rico from today through Wednesday, over Hispaniola from Wednesday
through Thursday and over the Bahamas from Thursday through
Friday.

Mexico and Central America:

A series of  induced low-level troughs are expected to bring some
precipitation from today through Friday over Veracruz in Mexico,
although the accumulated precipitation each day is not expected to
exceed 30mm, as the precipitable water availability is relatively
low.

An easterly wave currently located around 85W will bring more
rainfall activity over parts of Central America and Mexico. This
easterly wave is expected to cause thunderstorms and a period of
heavy rainfall over the northeastern coast of Honduras and Belize
starting today, and on Wednesday morning, as it increases
instability at low- and mid-levels and advects moisture in the
area. From Wednesday through Thursday part of the easterly wave
will continue to move as a low-level trough towards the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, while the easterly wave will continue to
propagate westward into the Pacific coast of Mexico. An increase
in low-level moisture convergence and upper level divergence
associated with an upper level trough moving from Mexico into the
Gulf,  is expected to increase precipitation over the Yucatan
Peninsula from Wednesday through Thursday, and totals are expected
to decrease from Thursday through Friday as the low-level trough
leaves the region and upper level divergence decreases overland.

Conditions are expected to remain relatively stable for most of
the rest of Central America, as dry air is advected into the
region, and a high persists at mid- and upper-levels, although
light precipitation due to low-level troughs, diurnal heating and
local effects is possible.

Some precipitation is expected today over Costa Rica and Panama,
as the monsoon trough favors onshore moisture on the Caribbean
coast. However, moisture is expected to decrease over the
Caribbean coasts, and the flow will become more northeasterly over
the Pacific coast which may limit the rainfall activity,
particularly from Wednesday through Thursday. An increase in
precipitable water over the Caribbean by Friday, should then
increase the precipitation over the region.


South America:

Precipitation over the tropical South America will continue to be
mostly associated with convective induced troughs, diurnal
heating, and local effects. Higher total accumulations of rainfall
can be expected from today through Wednesday over the western
coast of Colombia as westerly flow continues to bring moisture
from the Pacific into the region. Precipitation is likely to
decrease in that region from Wednesday through Thursday as a
low-level trough disrupts the long-fetch Pacific moisture
transport. Moisture advection from the Amazon will continue to
provide fuel for daily convection in northwest Brazil, Ecuador,
and Peru over the forecast period. A plume of moisture associated
with a dissipating easterly wave will increase precipitation over
the Caribbean coast of South America. From today through Wednesday
this moisture plume combined with enhanced upper level divergence
due to the presence of an upper level trough in the Caribbean will
likely increase precipitation over the coast of Venezuela. As the
moisture plume propagates westward, moderate precipitation will
increase over Colombia from Wednesday through Thursday. From
Thursday through Friday this moisture advection combined with the
enhanced divergence over the periphery of an upper level high
moving over South America will increase convective activity over
northwestern Colombia.




Positions of Tropical/Easterly Waves Initialized at 12 UTC
TYP SOF  INIT  05/00  05/12  06/00  06/12  07/00  07/12  08/00
EW  12N   63W   64W    ---    ---
EW  19N   85W   80W    89W    91W    93W    95W    97W    ---
EW  22N   62W   63W    65W    68W    71W    73W    75W    77W

For the latest available charts please visit:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Blanco-Alcala...(WPC)