Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Forecast Bulletin 11 February 2026 at 1850 UTC:

Over portions of Mexico, the majority of the central and southern
regions will remain seasonally dry with the presence of a mid to
upper level ridge that will extend over most of the region over
the next three days. In the northwest of Mexico, an upper level
trough is reaching the region late Thursday into early Friday, and
with it favoring lower pressures in the lower parts of the
atmosphere from Thursday into Friday. A weakening atmospheric
river that is entering the region from Wednesday into Thursday
will have remnant moisture in the region, favoring precipitation
in northwest Mexico on Thursday and increasing on Friday. On
Thursday, expect maxima of 10mm in the central Baja California
Region, while on Friday, troughing over the Sonora and Chihuahua
will favor maxima of 15-30mm in the northern portion of the Sierra
Madre Occidental, while the northern Mexican Plateau and west
Sonora can expect maxima of 15-20mm. There is potential for higher
precipitation totals.

In northern Central America, seasonally dry conditions are
expected as the upper level ridge continues to dominate over the
region over the next three days. In Costa Rica and Panama,
continuous moisture propagating over the southern Caribbean Sea
are making their way into the region with the help of the
Caribbean Low Level Jet (LLJ). This will enhance orographic lift
along the mountainous terrain, favoring maxima of 20-35mm on
Wednesday. On Thursday, a new frontal boundary is propagating
southward from the United States and central Atlantic, expected
just north of the Bahamas by Thursday evening. With the change of
flow south of the front, expect the presence of a shear line and
prefrontal troughs to develop over the Caribbean and making it
just east of Costa Rica and Panama by the evening hours. With the
increase in available moisture with the help of the shear line,
expect an increase in precipitation from east Costa Rica to the
Bocas del Toro region of Panama, where expect maxima of 30-60mm.
On Friday, the frontal boundary continues to the east and south,
shifting the shear line structure away from Central America by
late Friday into Saturday. However, there will be ample time for
moist onshore flow to continue to interact with the terrain
throughout Friday, favoring maxima of 30-60mm. There is potential
for localized higher amounts in the region on Thursday and Friday,
as local effects could provide further enhancement for heavy
precipitation. 

In the Caribbean, the aforementioned frontal boundary is expected
in the southern United States on Wednesday, while a weakened
stationary boundary is expected just north of the Greater
Antilles. Moisture plumes are expected to travel along the
easterly trade winds that will favor light precipitation over the
Lesser Antilles, with maxima of 20-35mm in the central Lesser
Antilles. On Thursday, an upper level trough advances southward
and with it the cold front expected just north of the Bahamas by
Thursday evening. The aforementioned shear line will extend from
Hispaniola through the Caribbean Sea, favoring maxima of 20-35mm
in Hispaniola on Thursday. Enhanced low level troughing will also
favor similar amounts in Puerto Rico/VI. On Friday, the shear line
goes through some reorganization as the cold front continues east
and south into the central Atlantic, favoring maxima of 20-35mm in
the northern portions of Hispaniola, with the potential for higher
precipitation totals. The Bahamas, south Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico/VI can expect maxima of 15mm.

In tropical South America, the day with the heaviest precipitation
is expected on Wednesday, which coincides with the day with higher
totals of available moisture in the region. On Wednesday, the
presence of the Panama LLJ with favor cyclonic circulation over
west Colombia through Ecuador, while moist low level troughs are
entering the Amazon Delta and the Guianas. These conditions will
favor moderate to heavy precipitation over the aforementioned
regions, maxima of 30-60mm in French Guiana and Amapa-Brasil, and
20-35mm in west Colombia. On Thursday, the Panama LLJ beings to
weaken over the Gulf of Panama, however remnant available moisture
is expected to remain over the region and favor generalized maxima
of 20-45mm from west Colombia through Ecuador. In the east, dry
air is being advected along the trade winds, entering the Guianas
and the Amazon Delta by late Thursday into Friday, decreasing
total precipitation to maxima of 15-25mm. There is a potential for
localized higher amounts. Over the Amazon Basin, the moisture is
pooling over the western portion of the basin, where the diurnal
cycle will favor moderate precipitation of 20-35mm over the
region. On Friday, drier air will continue to enter the northeast
portion of the continent, favoring a decrease in local
precipitation. Local totals of 15-25mm are expected along the
Guianas and the eastern Amazon Basin. As moisture continues to
advect into the western Amazon Basin, expect maxima of 20-45mm
from southwest Colombia into west Ecuador and north Peru. By
Friday, wind speeds have decreased over the Gulf of Panama,
weakening the moist onshore flow into the western coasts of
Colombia and Ecuador, where expect maxima of 20-35mm.

Castellanos...(WPC)