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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1545Z Aug 04, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2022

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 04 AUG 2022 AT 18 UTC: CONVECTION IN MEXICO
WILL CLUSTER IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NORTH AMERICNA MONSOON. EASTERLY WAVES WILL PROVIDE SOME
VARIABILITY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO PEAK ON FRIDAY IN THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...DECREASING AFTER. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO NAYARIT. IN NORTHERN SONORA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND ALONG THE PACIFIC SOUTH COAST
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN JALISCO AND NORTHERN SINALOA WHERE
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN SONORA...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL CENTRAL TO JALISCO/NAYARIT AND ALONG THE ENTIRE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ADJACENT COAST. ALSO ON SATURDAY...A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND CHIAPAS...WHILE IN THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

A WEAK SAL AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUE TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVES ARE
PROPAGATING WESTWARD...BUT THEIR EFFECTS ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL ARRIVE INTO
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE ON FRIDAY...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
ACTIVATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE. THIS
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE LEEWARD AND VI
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE FRENCH ANTILLES AND 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS INTO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

A TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ AND WITH
ENHANCED TRADE WIND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
ON THURSDAY...WHILE IN THE REST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
COSTA RICA. IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS AND SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN
NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND THE EJE CAFETERO EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS. IN PANAMA AND THE PACIFIC BASIN/MOUNTAINS OF COSTA RICA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ALSO IN FRIDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
HONDURAS..EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA. ELSEWHERE IN PANAMA AND IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM WESTERN HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR WEST INTO CHIAPAS AND CAMPECHE IN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACTIVE FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NET AND
TROPICAL WAVES. NOTE THAT A NITECEABLE DRYING IS DEVELOPING FROM
NORTHERN BRASIL INITIALLY...EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND ALL OF THE GUIANAS BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12
TW    41W 14N   46W   51W   55W   59W   63W   67W   71W   75W
TW    56W 14N   59W   63W   67W   72W   76W   80W   84W   87W
TW    71W 12N   75W   80W   84W   88W   92W   95W   99W  103W
EW   101W 20N  105W  108W  110W  112W  DISS
EW   107W 26N  110W  111W  MERGES

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)