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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1626Z Aug 03, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1226 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2022

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 AUG 2022 AT 18 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
CENTE4RING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO VENTILATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN
WESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. TWO
EASTERLY WAVES WILL CONTROL THE VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
NOTE THAT THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL AMOUNTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN
MEXICO. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
FROM NAYARIT/JALISCO/GUANAJUATO INTO MOST OF SINALOA WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE. IN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL MEXICO EXOECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...BOTH EASTERLY WAVES WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA
INTO NAYARIT. IN NORTHERN SONORA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN
SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND ALONG THE PACIFIC SOUTH COAST EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN JALISCO AND NORTHERN SINALOA WHERE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN SONORA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO COASTAL AREAS
AIDED BY THE EASTERLY WAVE.

THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DRY AIR MASS...AND A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS. A TUTT IS RETROGRADING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND AS ITS
BASE MOVES FROM HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BY FRIDAY...IT WILL PROVIDE MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION. THROUGH THE CYCLE...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
INCLUDING THE HAITIAN PENINSULA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ON WEDNESDAY...10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON THURSDAY...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ON FRIDAY. OTHER AREAS TO EXPECT ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE WEST CUBA AND THE SIERRA
MAESTRA AND JAMAICA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. IN THE BAHAMAS EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE
CYCLE FROM 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHWEST
PORTIONS...TO ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER.

ACCELERATED TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES AND A TROPOSPHERIC UPPER DIVERGENT
KELVIN WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT THE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO VENTILATE CONVECTION TO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
PRIMARILY FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ON WEDNESDAY...A
TROUGH IN THE TRADES WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN WEST PANAMA/EASTERN COSTA RICA. IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA/WEST
COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL/EAST PANAMA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA AND IN CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE IN
PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
IN RAPIDLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO CENTER ALONG 84-85W BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS IN EASTERN NICARAGUA/CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS AND SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

IN NORTHENR SOUTH AMERICA...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
SHOFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE CYCLE...FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
GUYANA ON WEDNESDAY TO COLOMBIA BY FRIDAY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE VENTILATION
IN COLOMBIA...TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASING TREND AS THE CYCLE
PROGRESSES. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE HEAVIES PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN GUYANA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...WHERE MOPISTURE TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA INTO
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ALONG
THE NET. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. FROM NORTHERN GUYANA INTO MOST OF VENEZUELA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM CENTRAL VE3NEZUELA WEST INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12
TW    53W 14N   53W   56W   59W   63W   66W   69W   72W   75W
TW    65W 12N   67W   71W   75W   80W   84W   88W   92W   95W
EW    93W 20N   97W  101W  105W  109W  111W  114W  117W EXITS
EW   103W 26N  105W  107W  110W  111W  MERGES

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)