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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1219Z Aug 03, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2022

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
03/12UTC: A TUTT CENTERS NEAR 24N 65W EXTENDING AN ASIX INTO
PUERTO RICO. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TUTT IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE TRADES AND ASSOCIATED
SHALLOW CONVECTION PROPAGATING WESTWARD IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

AS THE TUTT RETROGRADES...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SET
FOOTHOLD LATER ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE BERMUDA RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRONG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
ACCELERATED TRADES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO/WESTERN
VI. IN THE CORDILLERA...AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY LACK OF
SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR AND BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING IN EXTREME
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND GENERALLY PEAKING OFFSHORE ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING MAXIMA UNDER 1 INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CORDILLERA AND WEST COAST.

THE NEXT WET EVENT IS EXPECTED ON LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 33W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS RAPIDLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE PERIOD OF ACCUMULATION AND
RAINFALL TOTALS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PICKING UP THE
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE IN ACCUMULATIONS AND ON THE TRACK
OF THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES EMBEDDED IN FAST
25-30KT EASTERLY TRADES...IS APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CLUSTER IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI
PEAKING ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE AN EXTREME
EVENT...YET IT IS WORTH MONITORING GIVEN THAT A KELVIN WAVE WILL
BE ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AT THAT TIME.

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)