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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1551Z Aug 02, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1151 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2022

NOTE: ECHO TRAINING EVENT IS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA AS LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...MOIST
POLL AND VENTILATION IN THE BASE OF A TUTT FAVOR REGENERATION OF
HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 02 AUG 2022 AT 18 UTC: A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAS SET UP IN THE SOUTHWEST USA AND WILL
VENTILATE CONVECTION ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IN NORTHWEST
MEXICO ON A DAILY BASIS. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
VARIABILITY AS IT PROPAGATES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY TO
SONORA/SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
IN THE NORTHERN S.M. OCDIDENTAL EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
FROM NAYARIT/JALISCO/GUANAJUATO INTO MOST OF SINALOA WITH THE
EASTERLY WAVE. IN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
IN SOUTHERN SONORA/NORTHERN SINALOA WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE...WHILE
IN SOUTHERN SINALOA/NAYARIT AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

A TUTT TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE CYCLE. YET...LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES INTO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ/NET TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY ADN MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN WEST CUBA...WHILE IN
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN WESTERN
HISPANIOLA DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY THE TUTT. IN JAMAICA...SOUTHEAST
AND WEST CUBA...AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN JAMAICA
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM CONSTRAINING TO
TRINIDAD ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM EXPANDING INTO TOBAGO AND GRENADA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

ACCELERATED TRADES CONTINUE ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECIALLY
IN AREAS SOUTH OF NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. A TUTT IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WILL INITIALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION BY INCREASED
VENTILATION AND POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM ON TUESDAY FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO NORTHEAST COSTA RICA WITH A RISK FOR
ECHO TRAINING. FROM SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA INTO WEST PANAMA...DEEP
CONVECTION PEAKING IN THE EVENING WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN CENTRAL PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST
PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA. IN NICARAGUA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM FROM EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO BOCAS DEL TORO...AND
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN. IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT...WHEN MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED FROM
NORTHERN NICARAGUA INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THIS DECREASES AFTER.

IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE PANAMANIAN LOW INITIALLY. THIS WILL
TRIGGER 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WIHT A RISK FOR MCS ON
TUESDAY. ACTIVITY PEAKS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS COLOMBIA...WHEN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. EAST ACROSS MOST OF VENEZUELA INTO
GUYANA...DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS TO SUSTAIN
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12
TW    48W 14N   50W   53W   56W   57W   60W   63W   66W   69W
TW    59W 12N   62W   65W   68W   72W   75W   80W   84W   88W
TW    79W 19N   83W   87W   91W  DISS
EW    85W 20N   89W   93W   97W  102W  105W  109W  MERGES
EW   100W 26N  102W  103W  105W  107W  109W  111W  114W  116W

GALVEZ/DIAWARA...WPC (USA)