Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Tue Feb 03 2026

Forecast Bulletin 03 February 2026 at 1935 UTC:

A potent cold front is anticipated to develop over the United
States Southern Plains and quickly advance southward into the Gulf
region on Wednesday and Thursday. The mid-to-upper level trough
supporting this frontal system will deepen starting Wednesday
morning and will continue to move into the southeast United States
on Thursday. On Tuesday evening, the cold front will be extending
into the extreme northern regions of Coahuila and Nuevo Leon. By
Wednesday evening, this front will be across southern Tamaulipas
and northern Veracruz with a stationary front extending into Nuevo
Leon and Coahuila. On Thursday evening, this front will be across
the northern Bahamas, north-central Cuba, and extending across the
Yucatan Peninsula. On Wednesday, there will be an increase in
moisture pooling and orographic lift that will support a total
precipitation maxima of 15mm in northern Veracruz. By Thursday,
the greatest precipitation impact will be confined to southern
Veracruz and northern Tabasco, where the greatest precipitation
chances will be during the day. A total precipitation maxima of 20
- 35mm is possible from Thursday morning through Friday morning.

In the Caribbean, there is currently a stationary front that is
situated between the Virgin Islands and the northern Lesser
Antilles islands. This stationary front will remain in this region
throughout the day on Tuesday. Moisture pooling will also be
present in the vicinity of the front. Meanwhile in Puerto Rico, an
enhanced northeasterly low level wind flow will interact with the
local topography, assisting in orographic lift and enhancing
moisture convergence across northwest and western Puerto Rico
during the day on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, there will be a
return of low level easterly winds across this entire region. At
the same time, the weakening stationary front will begin to lift
northward, crossing over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Precipitable water values will decrease subtly with
the transition in the low level wind pattern. Thus, from Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning, a total precipitation maxima of
15 - 30mm is possible across the Virgin Islands and the northern
Lesser Antilles islands. A total precipitation maxima of 15 - 20mm
is also likely across Puerto Rico for the same time period.

Meanwhile in the west Caribbean Basin, a potent low level trough
will continue to propagate into Central America for the next two
days. On Tuesday, this trough will be impacting the Caribbean
coast of Panama. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) will also gain
intensity and remain strong through Wednesday evening. This low
level jet will favor increasing low level cyclonic rotation across
its left exit region, which will coincidentally be located over
Panama. From Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, a total
precipitation maxima of 15 - 25mm will be likely across Panama
while a maxima of 15mm will be likely across Costa Rica and
northwest Panama, where enhanced northerly low level winds will be
dominant. On Wednesday, the trough will stretch across Jamaica and
off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The axis of
the trough is expected to move inland over Costa Rica on Wednesday
afternoon and will reach the coast of Nicaragua by late afternoon.
Thus, from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, a total
precipitation maxima of 15 - 25mm is likely in these regions. Note
that the stretching nature of this low level trough is due to the
decrease in pressure levels in the southeast United States where a
mid-to-upper level trough will be moving into.

On Thursday, the arrival of the potent cold front into the
southern Gulf region will interact with the remnants of the
aforementioned low level trough, leading to another low level
trough developing over the southern Bahamas, southeast Cuba, and
into Jamaica. During this time, the aforementioned upper level
trough across the continental United States will dig into the
Bahamas and Cuba on Thursday and Friday, where an accompanying
upper jet streak max will promote an increase in upper level
divergence in this region. Note that precipitable water values
will reach 57mm and high total precipitation maxima are
anticipated. From Thursday morning through Friday morning, a total
maxima of 30 - 60mm is likely in these regions. Meanwhile in Costa
Rica and Panama, there will be a return of low level northerly
winds that will interact with the local topography, enhancing
orographic lift and moisture convergence, leading to a total
precipitation maxima of 30 - 60mm from Thursday morning through
Friday morning.

Another region of interest is the Pacific coasts of Colombia and
Ecuador. The warming sea surface temperatures are favoring
increasing low level moisture in the region. Strong northerly low
level winds will be persistent on Tuesday and Wednesday. This
pattern will support the sustenance of a low level jet, in which
the region will be located in its cyclonic side. These conditions
will favor total precipitation maxima exceeding 45mm for the next
two days. Thereafter, the low level winds are projected to
decrease in magnitude. Expect the reestablishment of a low level
trough off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador. Meanwhile in the
Amazon, expect the persistence of the nocturnal low level jet
across Venezuela and Colombia and decreasing in intensity for
Thursday. Note that the most intense total precipitation maxima
will be confined to the cyclonic side of this jet, particularly
across the central Amazon Basin. Moisture convergence will also be
enhanced in this region. On Thursday, there will also be speed
divergence present in the region that will yield a total
precipitation maxima of 30 - 60mm across the central Amazon Basin.


Tinoco-Morales...(WPC)