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Tropical Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1812Z Aug 01, 2022)
 
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2022

FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 01 AUG 2022 AT 18 UTC: IN THE LARGE
SCALE...AN UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE
AMERICAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION. A
KELVIN WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA LATER IN THE WEEK...AND CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS PRESENT IN THESE REGIONS BETWEEN AUGUST 5TH
AND THE 10TH.

A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHWEST
USA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN EASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND VENTILATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL ON A DAILY BASIS. AN
EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING ALONG OAXACA/VERACRUZ ON MONDAY WILL
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO AS IT
PROPAGATES INTO JALISCO/NAYARIT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IN NORTHERN SINALOA/SOUTHERN SONORA...WHILE
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXOECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHILE BETWEEN NAYARIT/JALISCO AND
CENTRAL SINALOA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
FROM JALISCO/AGUASCALIENTES INTO NORTHERN SONORA. IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 25N 55W INTO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA...WITH ITS BASE IN THE ABC
ISLANDS. ANOTHER TUTT CENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GIVEN
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A TRADE WIND CAP IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THE TUTT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN AN
ISOLATED MANNER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
THE BAHAMAS. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO LATE ON TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE SUSTAINS A NORTHWARD UNDULATION OF THE ITCZ/NET.
DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE REINFORCED BY EHHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT IN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. ON MONDAY...EXPECT
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN HAITI...JAMAICA AND WEST CUBA TO FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. IN TRINIDAD EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN WEST CUBA AND THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TUTT...WITH FORECAST
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

A TUTT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL HIGHLIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. IN THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED WITH
IMPRESSIVE 35-50KT SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA PEAKING ON TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA THROUGH
THE CYCLE...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
EASTERN HONDURAS INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA/BELIZE. IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 35-50MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-10MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...WHILE FROM
WEST PANAMA INTO SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM STIMULATED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM WEST PANAMA INTO
CENTRAL COSTA RICA...WHILE IN EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL MOSTLY ORGANIZE ALONG THE
NET. A FEW PERTURBATIONS ARE PROPAGATING IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
BUT...UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE
MJO...THEIR AMPLITUDE WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA/EASTERN VENEZUELA IN ITCZ
CONVERGENCE. SIMIOAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA WITH THE ITCZ/NET. IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION
AND THE MAGDALENA MEDIO. IN NORTHWEST COLOMVBIA AND PANAMA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN MOST OF VENEZUELA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
VENEZUELA INTO MOST OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
TYPE INIT SOF 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW    43W 08N   45W   48W   50W   53W   55W   57W   60W   63W
TW    52W 08N   56W   59W   62W   67W   72W   76W   81W   86W
TW    73W 10N   77W   81W   86W   91W   96W  102W  107W  112W
EW    83W 14N   87W   90W   93W   96W   98W  DISS
EW    93W 18N   97W  100W  103W  105W  108W  110W  113W  115W

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 44W...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE GUIANAS ON WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 52W. ON MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHERN GUYANA/EASTERN VENEZUELA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM CENTRAL GUYANA INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 73W AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD. ON MONDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN JAMAICA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL
FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...WHILE IN WESTERN PANAMA/WESTERN
COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 83W. ON MONDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS AND
FAR EASTERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
15-20MM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL DISSIPATE IN CENTRAL MEXICO.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 93W. ON MONDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM IN JALISCO/NAYARIT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

GALVEZ/DIAWARA...WPC (USA)