Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024 - 12Z Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Excessive Heat lingers over portions of Texas and the central Gulf Coast this weekend into next week... ...Overview... The remnants of Debby are now forecast to lift out of the Northeast rather quickly on Saturday with now only limited heavy rain concerns for New England. Upstream over the West and central states, upper ridging centered over Texas will maintain monsoonal flow over the Southwest this weekend into next week with heat concerns persisting from Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Minor troughing over the Pacific Northwest will linger through the period. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... There is finally consensus among global guidance with the 00Z suite now that the GFS is much quicker in its exit of Debby through the Northeast on Saturday. However, the 18Z GFS was still much slower with Debby remnants, so it was largely excluded from the forecast blend that went into the Days 4-7 fronts and pressures. The 12Z ECMWF was heavily favored in that forecast blend and for QPF a general blend of the 01Z NBM with the 12Z ECMWF/CMC and some UKMET was used. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... The quicker exit of Debby-related rainfall from the Northeast on Saturday warranted dropping the Slight over New England in favor of a more restricted Marginal. Monsoonal moisture on the western side of the ridge will keep a wet and unsettled pattern in place from the Four Corners region northward into the Rockies/High Plains through this weekend . Marginal EROs are in effect for parts of the Southwest/Four Corners for Days 4/5. Guidance continues to agree organized activity Saturday/Sunday that originates in the lee of the CO Rockies and track southeast over portions of southern KS/much of OK into the Ozarks. Marginal Risks are in effect for both Days 4 and 5 as a result. Above seasonal normal temperatures persist over Texas to the central Gulf coast this weekend into next week down stream of a ridge axis over west Texas. Below normal temperatures over central U.S. persists behind a cold front this weekend/Monday before return flow brings temps back toward normal. Jackson Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw