Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 12Z Fri Jul 18 2025 ...Daily heavy rain threats are forecast for the Florida Peninsula Monday through Thursday... ...Overview... A typical summertime pattern will be in place much of the medium range period next week with an expansive upper ridge stretched across the Southern U.S. with progressive shortwaves through the northern stream flow. A shortwave from the base of an initially zonal jet across Canada will amplify into a trough over the northern Rockies by Tuesday, drifting east through the northern Plains and Great Lakes through Friday. This trough will send a cold front through the northern and central U.S. aiding convection over much of the country east of the Rockies. Elsewhere, weak energy near/over Florida will keep daily rain threats over the Sunshine state through the week, and another trough will drop south towards the Northwest by late week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The guidance on the large scale continues to show pretty good agreement through much of the period, but with some notable differences in the timing of features through the northern stream flow. The GFS was a bit slower with the trough sliding through the northern tier Tuesday-Thursday, with better agreement from ensembles for a faster solution as advertised by the ECMWF and CMC. Out West, energy rounding a ridge over the northeast Pacific will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska, but with considerable uncertainty in the evolution and placement by the time it reaches the Pacific Northwest late week. The WPC forecast leaned more heavily on the ECMWF and CMC early week, trending towards majority weight of the ensemble means by late week to mitigate the differences described above. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A cold front through the East will bring showers and storms to this region through Monday before the front dissipates, and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place for the day 4/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Upper level energy across Texas will continue a heavy rainfall threat into Monday as well, with another marginal risk for portions of west and central Texas on the ERO for Monday. To the north, a cold front through the northern/central Plains and eastward next week will support showers and thunderstorms with ample moisture and instability resulting in a heavy to excessive rainfall threat. A marginal risk is highlighted for parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday, expanding across much of the Upper Midwest by Tuesday, though still with plenty of uncertainty in exactly where the heavier rain falls. This activity should move east into the Ohio Valley and the East Coast next Wednesday and Thursday. Monsoonal moisture looks to return to the Southwest/Four Corners/southern Rockies region later in the week. Elsewhere, upper level energy over Florida will lead to daily heavy rainfall threats, with some guidance indicating several inches of rain over much of the Peninsula over a couple of days. There is significant uncertainty though in exactly how much rain will fall, and with high flash flood values, maintained just broad marginals over the state for the Monday and Tuesday ERO periods. Hot weather will remain for much of the western U.S. through Monday as upper ridging persists. Daily maximums will be above normal with many locations climbing into the 100s and 110s for the Desert Southwest, and nearing/exceeding 100F farther north in interior/lower elevation areas of the Great Basin. Temperatures will moderate below normal by Tuesday for the northern Plains with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures look to be a few degrees cooler than average for the south- central U.S. for much of next week as clouds and rain hold temperatures down. The Northeast will see a return to above normal temperatures on Tuesday after the trough clears. Meanwhile the Southeast should be near normal to a few degrees above, for typical summer heat and humidity. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw