Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 AM EST Wed Nov 5 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Nov 12 2025 ...Overview... An amplified upper level pattern will develop across the nation this weekend into early next week with deep troughing over the Eastern U.S. and eastern Pacific and ridging in between over the West. This will allow several strong cold fronts to push south across the Central and Eastern U.S., ushering in much colder temperatures for these regions. Precipitation, some wintry, will focus under the upper trough over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast while the West and south-Central U.S. remain dry under the upper ridge. The upper level flow should flatten out some by mid-next week as northern stream energy cuts through the ridge in western Canada and dives into the Midwest/Great Lakes. This will continue precipitation chances in the Great Lakes region, and precipitation chances will likely increase along West Coast as well as a frontal system slowly approaches the coast. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance remains in good agreement through the forecast period with above average predictability given a highly amplified pattern. There is an expected amount of uncertainty in the finer scale details, especially later in the period when there are some timing differences. Mid-next week, the ECMWF is a little slower than the GFS and CMC, though not by much, as northern stream energy splits and cuts through the western ridge and a closed upper low and surface frontal system approach the West Coast. This is also affecting the evolution of the system/disturbance digging into the Great Lakes downstream. These difference will affect the timing and amounts of precipitation over the West Coast and Great Lakes next week. Given good model agreement, the WPC forecast was composed of a near even blend of the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC through the first half of the period. Ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were added in increasing amounts for the second half of the period to help smooth out model differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A low pressure system exiting the Northeast on Saturday will be quickly followed by the next clipper system racing across the north-Central and Northeastern U.S. this weekend. The leading system will bring precipitation chances to the eastern third of the nation late Friday into Saturday, then the second clipper system will bring another shot of precipitation chances to the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, and central/southern Appalachians. Wintry precipitation, with some accumulating snow potential, is expected in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, New England, and Appalachians this weekend. The clipper system will likely also bring gusty winds to the Northern and Central Plains on Saturday. On the backside of the clipper system, a series of successive cold fronts will push cold and dry Arctic air south across the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to drop to 10-20 degrees below average, and sub-freezing lows will be possible as far south as the southern Plains and interior Southeast Sunday and Monday nights. The coldest temperatures are forecast for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where highs will struggle to rise above freezing and lows will likely be in the teens this weekend. Additionally, persistent west-northwesterly winds behind the cold fronts will support lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes through early next week. Meanwhile, strong ridging will dominate the weather pattern across the West, which will result in dry weather with above average temperatures. Temperatures will generally be 10-15 degrees above average. Above average temperatures are expected to spread to the Plains early-to-mid next week as a warm front pushes east across the region. The upper level pattern should flatten out a bit next week as upper level energy cuts through the western ridge and dives into the Midwest and Great Lakes mid-next week. This will likely drive a frontal system across the north-Central U.S. that could bring increased precipitation chances to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Precipitation chances should also increase across the West Coast mid-next week as a Pacific frontal system slowly approaches the coast. Dolan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw