Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Valid 00Z Mon 10 Nov 2025 - 00Z Mon 17 Nov 2025

A cold front will continue to shift south today bringing a threat
of light rain showers. East-northeasterly trade winds will 
increase behind this front and result in continued showery 
conditions into the windward areas of the state. Weak forcing and
shallow moisture will limit rainfall rates and reduce the risk of
any flooding. However persistent easterly flow into the terrain 
should result in a few inches of rainfall through Monday over 
windward portions of Maui and the Big Island.

A reinforcing cold front should move towards the state Wednesday
into Thursday brining another uptick in rain shower potential.
Trade winds will likely be even stronger in the wake of this
front, which will support continued upslope enhanced rainfall,
with an additional couple inches of rain possible over the
windward portions of Maui and the Big Island. However, the
inversion height will remain low with significant dry air
aloft...thus rainfall rates should again be limited.

There are some indications in the models of an uptick in 
instability over the state by Friday into Saturday as a weak low
aloft tries to move overhead. Forcing will remain weak, but this 
could still be enough to get some isolated thunderstorm 
development and possibly some locally heavier rainfall rates.

Chenard