Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 00Z Thu 22 Jan 2026 - 00Z Thu 29 Jan 2026


A line of showers is expected for Oahu Wednesday with winds 
turning to show a northerly component, but with temporarily 
weakening moisture as a cold front advances through the region. A
secondary front will in its wake will help to reinforce the 
boundary and pool higher moisture levels across the state, 
especially as a surge of moisture comes in from the west. 
Instability is forecast to increase broadly Friday into Saturday 
which in turn will be more favorable for widespread rainfall for
the weekend. There may be embedded locally heavy rain.

Into early next week, the upper trough should be moving east, 
with possible ridging building in from the west. This transition
would favor overall drying. However, there is spread in the
guidance with this and also whether or not another frontal system
will pass through the Island state.

Campbell