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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1220Z Aug 07, 2018)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
820 AM EDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 08 2018 - 00Z Wed Aug 15 2018

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is currently issuing
advisories on Hurricane Hector, whose track should pass south of
the state along 16-17N latitude around Wednesday.  Effects on the
islands will be very sensitive to exact track so this system will
continue to require close monitoring.  Based on forecasts thus far
the compact nature of Hector should lead to heaviest rainfall and
strongest winds staying just to the south of the Big Island. 
However the Big Island in particular should still see a period of
strong and gusty winds along with some locally heavy rainfall,
given the combination of terrain enhancement as well as an axis of
high precipitable water values expected to spread over the state
near and behind Hector.

Otherwise flow around a strong surface high covering much of the
eastern Pacific will provide generally moderate trades into next
week.  Ahead of Hector a fairly dry regime will prevail with only
light/scattered rainfall.  Expect another period of relatively
light windward showers this weekend and possibly into early next
week as drier air moves across the region behind Hector and its
moisture shield.  The forecast is more uncertain next
Monday-Tuesday as guidance diverges on the timing and extent of
moisture that is currently near Tropical Storm Kristy.  Thus there
is potential for some increase in rainfall toward the end of the
forecast period but with low confidence.

Rausch