Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Dec 05 2025 - 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Churchill

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 06 2025 - 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 07 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 08 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

20Z Update...
The 12Z models still present plenty of uncertainty. In addition to
limited instability, which may limit rates and the potential for
short-term runoff concerns; those models that do signal some threat
for flooding show notable north-south differences with their
placement for heavy amounts. That said, the previous Marginal Risk
generally covers the envelope of deterministic models that suggest
there is some potential for at least isolated flash flooding. This
includes the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and the UKMet.

Pereira

Previous discussion...
A quasi-stationary front draped near the FL Panhandle may become
convectively active by Day 3, though uncertainty remains high as
instability still looks to be the main limiting factor. While
many models indicate unproblematic rainfall totals, other models
(the 00z GFS in particular) depict the potential for localized
training of convective cells along the front with heavy rainfall
within nearly unidirectional westerly flow aloft. Maintained an
inherited MRGL risk for now with localized flash flooding possible
should 3"+ totals occur over a short period in a relatively
sensitive area.

Churchill

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt