Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Nov 28 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

Shortwave energy exiting the Rockies into the Southern Plains will
help a surface low pressure system to develop, sending a cold
front into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Convection is
expected to fire up over eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast then
increase coverage and intensity as the front advances, spreading
northeast into the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Hourly rates of
0.5 inch/hr or greater will be possible along with areal averages
of 1 to 3 inches from the Texas Coast to southern Indiana. At this
time the heaviest QPF is favoring southwest/southern Louisiana.
Recent precipitation has increased soil saturation across portions
of the south-central and central U.S. so there may be isolated
areas where the expected precipitation may reach or exceed local
flash flood guidance. A Marginal Risk is in effect from eastern
Texas/Central Gulf Coast north and east to  southwest Indiana.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt