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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1532Z Nov 28, 2023)
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Nov 28 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023 - 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 - 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023


Shortwave energy exiting the Rockies into the Southern Plains will
help a surface low pressure system to develop, sending a cold
front into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Convection is
expected to fire up over eastern Texas and the Gulf Coast then
increase coverage and intensity as the front advances, spreading
northeast into the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valley. Hourly rates of
0.5 inch/hr or greater will be possible along with areal averages
of 1 to 3 inches from the Texas Coast to southern Indiana. At this
time the heaviest QPF is favoring southwest/southern Louisiana.
Recent precipitation has increased soil saturation across portions
of the south-central and central U.S. so there may be isolated
areas where the expected precipitation may reach or exceed local
flash flood guidance. A Marginal Risk is in effect from eastern
Texas/Central Gulf Coast north and east to  southwest Indiana.


Day 1 threat area:
Day 2 threat area:
Day 3 threat area: