Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Mar 18 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Taylor


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

A strengthening low pressure system moving into the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Day 3 may bring a low-end threat of excessive
rainfall and flooding to portions of eastern Iowa, southern
Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. Elevated convection lifting
east/northeast along the advancing warm front could produce intense
enough rain rates to cause some runoff issues. However,
uncertainty in the low track (rain/snow line) precludes an
introduction of a Marginal Risk at this time.

Further south along the trailing cold front, a line of showers and
thunderstorms is likely to form across portions of the OH/TN
Valleys. QPF amounts look modest at this time and convection should
be fairly progressive. However, given recent heavy rainfall and
wet antecedent conditions, this area will need to be monitored in
future updates if QPF trends higher or storm motions slow.

Taylor


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt