Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 2-3...

As upper ridging builds into north central Canada late Wed into
Thu, troughing will dig southward from Ontario across the western
Great Lakes and into the Midwest/Northeast behind an exiting Mid-
Atlantic area of low pressure. Lake temperatures are still +8 to
+12C (Superior) and +10 to +15 (Michigan) and the incoming cold air
is seasonably chilly (though much colder than recent days). 850mb
temperatures are forecast to dip to around -5 to -10C (south to
north) yielding a delta-T of around 15-20C, supporting lake effect
precipitation. Surface temperatures will be coldest (and <32F) over
the U.P. of Michigan where multi-banded snow on northerly winds
will likely accumulate several inches Thursday into early Friday
(and beyond). Through 12Z Fri, the probability of at least 4 inches
of snow is >50% over the Huron Mountains (away from the warmer
lake shore). Northerly flow down the long axis of Lake Michigan
could spur a robust lake band of rain/snow into northwestern
Indiana Thursday evening into early Friday. Though temperatures are
marginal, the potential exists for a narrow area of modest wet
snow overnight if rates are sufficiently high.

Farther east, the combination of precipitation on the
northern/northwestern side of the exiting Mid-Atlantic system and
incoming modestly cold air from the west-northwest will lead to
periods of light to modest snow over especially the higher terrain
of the Adirondacks into the Green and White Mountains in VT/NH. The
probability of at least 4 inches of snow is >50% above about
3500ft. Minor impacts are likely (>50% chance) per the
probabilistic WSSI.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso