Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2004Z Oct 20, 2018)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 21 2018 - 00Z Wed Oct 24 2018


Days 1 through 3...

...Central Appalachians (Day 1)...

A potent shortwave rounding the trough base across the Great Lakes
this afternoon and evening will cross the central Appalachians
later tonight. Robust QG forcing this evening (DPVA ahead of the
trough) will lead to mostly rain given the low-level warm layer
ahead of the front, though on the backside of the upper
trough/surface front the increased low-level CAA will help
maintain lake-enhanced bands of rain and snow showers, with the
activity then getting somewhat of a boost orographically by the
time it reaches the central Appalachians given the northwesterly
upslope flow.

Probabilities for 4 or more inches of snow during the day 1 period
were highest (20-30%) in parts of northeast WV from Elkins to
Canaan Valley south toward Cheat Mountain and Valley Head --
particularly in elevations aoa 4,000 ft.


The probability of significant icing (0.25 inches or more) is less
than 10 percent all three days.

Hurley