Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 09 2026 - 00Z Sun Apr 12 2026


...Sierra Nevada...
Day 3...

A closed upper level low off the coast of California will
break down into open wave as it comes ashore Friday night into
Saturday. Quick on its heels will be a stronger and more compact
closed low which is set to make landfall over northern California
Saturday night into Sunday. In tandem, these features will send
waves of impressive moisture inland, headlined by PW anomalies of
150 to 200 percent of normal. These surges of moisture will
interact with the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada, leading to
periods of moderate to heavy snow beginning Day 3 (Friday night
into Saturday) and continuing into the weekend. Southwest flow
ahead of these systems will initially keep snow levels relatively
high (generally above 9000ft). However, as colder air works in from
the west and northwest, snow levels are expected to drop closer to
6000ft by Saturday evening, and perhaps as low as 4500ft by early
Sunday morning.

The latest WPC probabilities for >6" of snow have increased with
this forecast package, and are now up to 50-80% across a large
portion of the Sierra Nevada. Meanwhile, probabilities for >12" of
snow have also increased, now up to 20-50% across the higher peaks
of the Sierra. Travel across the higher mountain passes will
increasingly become a concern through the weekend as snow levels
lower, which is highlighted by 40-80% WSSI-P probabilities for
moderate impacts.


Miller