Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 11 2026


...Southeast New England...
Day 1...

Ongoing convergent banding over southeast New England will continue
to shunt east as it gets further undercut by the Arctic cold front
which will shift offshore late evening. Remaining snow should taper
off this evening.


...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

A trough axis pushes across western WA this evening with the
leading moisture axis maintaining moderate precip rates until the
overnight when they are shunted south. Snow levels on the WA
Cascades decrease from 6000ft to 4000ft tonight under height
falls.
The primary trough axis pushes onshore the PacNW Sunday evening.
This
wave will then continue to track east while deamplifying, reaching
the northern High Plains Monday.

This trough evolution will be accompanied by a modest subtropical
jet streak arcing meridionally downstream to provide overlapping
synoptic ascent. This lift will occur into a moistening column as
persistent SW flow ahead of the shortwave/trough axis will provide
a long duration of moisture advection with two rounds of heavy
precipitation extending from Oregon through the Northern Rockies.
Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 40-80% for the WA/OR Cascades above
about 5000ft and over the northern Rockies. Day 2 snow probs for
>6" are similar to Day 1 for the Cascades, but much greater across
the northern Rockies including 50-90% for the Tetons, Absarokas,
Sawtooths, Bitterroots, and through Glacier NP. Snow tapers off
Monday as the trough axis shifts onto the Plains.


...Sierra Nevada and Great Basin...
Day 3...

The next shortwave trough from the Pacific shifts farther south
than more recent ones, reaching the central/northern CA coast late
Monday night, crossing the Great Basin Tuesday night. Snow levels
of 6000 to 7000ft can be expected on the Sierra Nevada with the
early snow Monday night and 5000 to 6000ft Tuesday as the trough
axis approaches. Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% over the
length of the Sierra Nevada. A welcome sight for skiers and those
with Sierra hydrology interests.


Jackson



...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png