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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1915Z May 10, 2023)
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Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 11 2023 - 00Z Sun May 14 2023

*** This is the last regularly scheduled Heavy Snow Discussion for
the season. The next update will be on or about October 1, 2023
unless a significant snow threat is forecast. ***

...North Central & Colorado Rockies...
Days 1-3...

A potent 500mb low (or nearly closed low) moving through the Four
Corners this evening will take on a negative tilt into tomorrow
morning as it moves into Southeastern CO. This will place the CO
Rockies on the NW side of the 500-700mb closed circulation beneath
modest upper divergence on Thursday with moisture wrapping in from
the east. The upper low and developing surface low will move out
of northeastern CO by Thursday morning, but additional mid-level
troughing will remain across the Four Corners into Friday.
Snowfall will continue northeastward into the WY ranges as the
main upper low continues into South Dakota by early Saturday. Snow
levels will be high given the time of year -- generally above
8000-9000ft -- with more accumulation overnight due to less solar
insolation. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow during
the next two days are highest above 10,000ft. Some of the highest
peaks may see in excess of a foot of snow in Colorado, with
several inches likely in the higher terrain of the Absarokas, Wind
River Range, and Bighorns that will diminish into Saturday.

For days 1-3, the probability of ice accumulations greater than
0.25 inch is less than 10 percent.