Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 15 2026


...Central Appalachians...
Day 1...

Snow squalls are expected to wane by this evening over the Mid-
Atlantic as the associated cold front exits into the eastern
Atlantic Ocean and lapse rates weaken following sunset. Upslope
northwesterly flow into the terrain of the central Appalachians may
continue to produce moderate snowfall until early Monday morning
when this flow eventually weakens and dries out due to a more
westerly component to the winds. A few inches of additional
snowfall are likely across the Allegheny Mts of WV, western MD, and
southwest PA.


...Great Lakes & Northern New England...
Days 1-3...

Deep upper trough and attached closed low starts the period over
New England with an associated rapidly deepening surface low
quickly exiting towards Newfoundland. Lingering light to moderate
snowfall is possible tonight along with increasing winds across far
northern ME due to this area of low pressure. Latest WSSI depicts
Minor Impacts through tonight due to this continuing snowfall.

Meanwhile, cold northwesterly flow will weaken on Monday over the
Great Lakes and northern New England as an embedded shortwave
crosses the region with additional light snow downwind of Lake
Ontario and into the favorable upslope terrain of the Adirondacks,
northern Greens and Whites. Then by Tuesday a much stronger
shortwave and area of low pressure is expected to pass over or just
to the north of the Great Lakes. Initial WAA snow is possible over
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday morning along with a glaze of
freezing rain, but snow and ice amounts are expected to remain
light. As this system exits to the east on Wednesday and upper
troughing deepens over the Great Lakes as well as increasing
northerly CAA, lake effect snow is forecast to pick up once again
along the shores of Lake Superior in the U.P. of MI.

For the entire period snowfall totals are expected to remain
mostly light outside of the Tug Hill Plateau and favorable
snowbelts in the U.P. of MI. WPC probabilities for over 8" of snow
through 00Z Thursday are 50-70% in the Tug Hill and 20-50% in the
MI U.P. from the Porcupine to Huron Mts.


Snell