Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2022Z Mar 24, 2024)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 25 2024 - 00Z Thu Mar 28 2024

...The West/Great Basin/Northern Rockies/Four Corners...
Days 1-3...

Deep and broad upper trough moving through the Great Basin/Four
Corners this evening will continue to advance into the Plains,
being the driver for the northern Plains/Upper Midwest system.
Light snow will continue over the Mogollon Rim, Wasatch, and CO
Rockies D1 with higher accumulations at high elevations. Farther
north, northern stream vorticity will swing through Montana,
helping to spur additional snowfall over the Bitteroots. Into D2,
upper jet will arc out of the northeast Pacific into NorCal and SW
OR, favoring continued unsettled weather into the Pac NW and
northern Great Basin, where light snow will continue in the
mountains. Upper ridging will briefly push into the region late
Tue/early Wed before another trough starts to enter the Pac NW by
the end of the period. Moisture plume will focus into coastal WA/OR
with snow for the Cascades and snow levels around 4000ft.


...High Plains/Central Rockies/Upper Midwest...
Days 1-2...

**Major Winter Storm to Impact Northern High Plains to the Upper
 Midwest into Early This Week**

Low pressure over SE CO will start to trek northeastward tonight as
the mid-level shortwave exits NM amid a sharpening upper flow. With
the jet lifting into the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt, strong divergence
beneath the LFQ of the increasinly S-shaped jet will promote
widespread modest QPF over the northern tier tonight through
Monday. 50-60kt southerly flow at 850mb will bring in substantial
moisture to the region that will wrap around the surface cyclone
moving into Iowa by Monday evening. Trailing mid-level vorticity
will swing around the backside of the lead center as temperatures
fall behind the storm below freezing. Over the eastern side of the
CO Rockies to the Front Range and western central High Plains, this
surge of colder air via a strong cold front will change rain to
snow outside the mountains with northerly/north-northeasterly flow
favoring the Palmer Divide into the Sangre de Cristos and higher
totals into the Rockies themselves. WPC probabilities for at least
6 inches of snow are highest (>70%) above 5500-6000ft.

Onto the Plains northeastward, the vigorous system will favor heavy
snow to the northwest of its low track and increasing wind around
the entire system, leading to blowing and drifting snow. Strong WAA
northward will promoted heavier snow rates (1-2"/hr per the WPC
snowband tool) amid robust FGEN deeper into the cold air, but
overrunning milder air will also allow for a changeover from rain
to snow with a period of icing and some sleet in between. The heavy
snow axis will lie from western/central NE northewastward to
northeastern SD and across central to northeastern MN where snow is
the dominant or only p-type. Just to the southeast of that line
will be an area of freezing rain which may accrete to a couple
tenths of an inch, especially along the SD/MN border where the
pivot point of the system will linger for a time as the lead 500mb
vort is subsumed by the trailing one. By Monday evening/Tuesday
morning, the low will continue to head northeastward into
northwestern WI, enhancing low- level convergence along the west
side of Lake Superior but also allowing for milder air aloft to
change some areas over to freezing rain. The system will finally
exit into Canada late Tuesday but with a fair amount of wrap-around
snow showers over the Upper Midwest. Storm total probabilities of
at least 8 inches of snow are at least 50% from roughly far
northwestern KS northeastward to eastern SD and across much of
central to northern and northeastern MN as well as far northwestern
WI. Within this area, probabilities of at least 12 inches are
highest over northeastern MN and through the Arrowhead along the
Lake Superior shore.


Fracasso

***Key Messages for Plains-Upper Midwest Winter Storm***

--A high-impact winter storm unfolding

A vigorous storm will impact the Northern/Central Plains into the
Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Heavy snow and increasingly gusty
winds will expand through much of the region overnight along with
some sleet and freezing rain.

--Widespread heavy snow expected

Heavy snow is forecast from western Nebraska northeastward to
central and northern Minnesota. Snow may accumulate at 1-2"/hr in
heavier bands tonight across Minnesota and Wisconsin as well as
central Nebraska. Storm total snowfall may exceed a foot (>50%
chance) over northern and northeastern Minnesota.

--Hazardous impacts due to snow, snow load, and wind

Heavy snow and gusty winds over 50 mph will produce blizzard
conditions with near zero visibility into early Tuesday. Travel
could be nearly impossible. Power outages and tree damage are
likely in some areas due to the heavy and wet snow combined with
icing and strong winds.

--Strong wind gusts in the Central and Southern Plains

Wind gusts over 50 mph today may result in power outages, blowing
dust with reduced visibility, difficult travel, and property
damage. Critical fire weather conditions are in effect this evening
and tomorrow over the Southern High Plains into South Texas.