Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on X
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #1248
(Issued at 1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #1248

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...northern LA into southeastern AR and
central/northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250356Z - 250810Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
northern LA into southeastern AR and central/northern MS over the
next few hours. Peak hourly rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches are
expected within axes of training.

Discussion...A broken squall line was observed through radar
imagery at 0330Z from southeastern AR into northern/western LA and
far eastern TX. This feature was located out ahead of an
approaching shortwave and embedded vorticity max which extended
from northeastern TX into southeastern OK, moving toward the ENE.
Low level convergence, ahead of the associated surface cold front
and along/north of the system's warm front, was helping to focus
the SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms which has had a
history of training and 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour since at
least 01Z. The lower MS Valley also resided beneath the diffluent
right entrance region of a 100 to 120+ kt jet max centered over
the central MO/IL border which was aiding lift within the moist
(1.5-1.7 inch PWs) and unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) environment.

As the shortwave and embedded vorticity max continue to advance
downstream toward the ENE, The axis of thunderstorms will follow
suit, with areas of embedded training within the SW to NE oriented
mean steering flow. The environment will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches at times, which is below FFG
values for southern portions of this MPD, but at or above it for
AR into northern MS. Therefore, the flash flood threat is
considered possible and should be mainly confined to urban or
otherwise sensitive locations where 2 to 4 inches of rain could
fall in 3 hours or less time.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35088927 35088829 34968780 34368761 33768814
            33018901 32329007 31849104 31289216 30859377
            31139431 31709418 32009364 32549301 33409201
            34709039
Download in GIS format:    Shapefile  | KML



Last Updated: 1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jan-2025 11:25:04 GMT