Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072344Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2", especially near
Sacramento Mountains, pose a localized threat of flash flooding
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery showed a surface boundary
across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico while
RAP-based moisture flux convergence maxima were mainly along or
near the boundary with late afternoon/early evening surface Tds in
the mid to upper 50s.  Upslope is deep enough to have bled through
to the westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry
line noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn
Range. 

The cloudy nature east of the terrain has limited insolation but a
combination of late afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s
south of the front and dewpoints in the 50s has resulted in some
pockets of surface based CAPE values in the 750 to 1000 J per kg
range by 07/23Z.  While upslope flow has not begun in earnest, the
limited capping and weak divergence aloft at the entrance of a
subtropical jet streak could result in additional showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of an
inch per hour due to destabilization noted in most of the recent
Hi-Res CAMs and recent mesoanalysis.  The environmental bulk shear
suggests some rotation which will further increase moisture flux
convergence to support 1.5"/hr rates. Any cells in the general
proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is more
likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at this
time scale but locals should remain weather-aware. 

As the evening progresses, upslope flow is expected to continue
and strengthen through/westward past the terrain and expand
convective initiation farther north and west with time.  Spots of
1-2" in hard pan ground conditions may result in additional
localized incidents of flash flooding.

Bann

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35200531 34270390 33540329 32280341 31790406
            31440489 31360595 31750647 31900762 33070770
            34450722 35160634