Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle, northwestern TX into southwestern
OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190704Z - 191300Z

SUMMARY...The expanding coverage of slow moving thunderstorms
through early morning may result in a few areas of flash flooding
across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX into
southwestern OK. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher
possible) is expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour ending at 0645Z, elevated
thunderstorms have become better organized over northwestern TX
into the southern TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Low level
advection of moisture over a quasi-stationary front has resulted
in the erosion of CIN beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to
8.5 C/km) present across the head waters of the Red River. MUCAPE
across this region of the southern Plains was moderately strong at
2000-4000 M/kg and PWs were high at 1.5 to 2.0 inches (06Z SPC
mesoanalysis). Meanwhile, weak steering flow was resulting in slow
cell motions of less than 10 kt.

RAP forecast showed that 850 mb winds of ~30 kt from the S to SE
over northwestern TX will weaken through 12Z but coverage of
storms is likely to increase before then. The expected increasing
coverage of cells could result in a a few small semi-organized
clusters with propagation toward the ESE or SE. Slow movement and
brief training is likely to result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches in a few locations but isolated higher rates will be
possible as well. The result could be isolated to widely scattered
coverage of flash flooding through 13Z with 2 to 4+ inches of
storm total rainfall.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35700095 35669953 35389809 34679622 33719640
            33389786 32729888 32829939 33309967 33840015
            34150101 34600174 35330155