Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192353Z - 200353Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were exhibiting localized
training, with rates increasing to about 1 inch/hr on a localized
basis.  Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were migrating eastward at a
decent pace across the discussion area this afternoon (~30 knots).
 Storms in Ohio were organized into forward-propagating bands,
though upstream areas over Indiana into southwestern Ohio were
exhibiting slightly more favorable orientation for local training.
 The convective orientation was favoring areas 1 inch/hr rain
rates on an isolated/spotty basis across the region, which was
approaching rather low FFG thresholds across the region due to wet
soils from prior rainfall the past few days.

Current trends suggest that an isolated flash flood risk will
exist for at least another couple hours.  1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
values and 1.9 inch PW values should sustain thunderstorms with
efficient rainfall rates at times through sunset.  Thereafter, the
combination of surface cooling, convective overturning, and an
approaching front from the west should lead in a downtick in
convective coverage and attendant flash flood potential.  Peak
risk will exist from now through around 03Z/11p eastern or so.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40188453 40048307 39338280 38688362 38318491
            38128631 38118760 38638758 39088725 39628635