Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261410Z - 261710Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue for another
2-3 hours across south Texas.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues.  Recent
satellite/objective analyses depict a weak mid-level shortwave
trough moving over south Texas, continuing to initiate and
maintain deep moist convection along a synoptic frontal zone over
the area (extending from Rio Grande City east to Padre Island and
Gulf of American waters).  1.5+ inch PW values and 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE continues to support efficient rainfall processes with
storms.  Meanwhile, kinematics (with weak flow below 500mb)
continue to support slow cell movement and spots of 2-3 inch/hr
rain rates.  While there's still an appreciable chance for these
rates to materialize along more populated/urbanized areas near the
Rio Grande (i.e., Brownsville, Harlingen, etc.) and prompt flash
flooding, overall convective trends suggest that eventual
low-level stabilization (due to overturning and cooler air
filtering into the region from the north) should result in flash
flood potential decreasing especially after 16-17Z.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27419817 26809699 25819722 26319917 26819957
            27299962