Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130315Z - 130715Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection over
south-central Georgia was producing 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just
northwest of Valdosta.  These rates could persist for another
couple hours.  Flash flooding is possible in the affected areas.

Discussion...A nearly stationary band of convection has exhibited
very slow and erratic movement over areas from near Thomasville to
near Adel.  The storms were situated directly beneath an upper low
over the area, which was likely combining with weak, isentropic
ascent to support persistent, shallow updrafts despite marginal
instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses).  The overall
scenario for flash flooding was not evolving quickly, and with
peak rain rates exceeding local FFG and prompting modest MRMS
Flash responses, it is likely that local impacts from excessive
runoff are underway in at least a couple of spots.

High-res guidance suggests that storms will weaken eventually,
although their current handling of the scenario lends some
uncertainty, and observations suggest that the ongoing threat will
persist beyond 05Z/1a eastern.  Additional local totals of 3
inches cannot be ruled out.  Conditions will be monitored for
additional flash flood potential beyond 07Z.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31508294 31318256 30888274 30568396 30898445
            31298384