Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...west-central into central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251509Z - 251909Z

Summary: The best chance of isolated flash flood potential exists
across west-central into central Alabama over the next couple
hours.

Discussion...A complicated surface/low-level pattern exists across
the discussion area currently.  A remnant outflow boundary from
earlier convection now over Georgia resides along an axis from
just south of Tuscaloosa eastward to the AL/GA border just north
of Auburn.  This boundary was oriented perpendicular to strong
southerly 850mb flow (around 40-45 knots), providing ascent for
sustained, deep convective updrafts.  Subtle mid-level waves
across Louisiana/Mississippi were also providing ascent for
updrafts.  Convection has tended to focus along and just north of
the aforementioned outflow, and with 1.4 inch PW values, moderate
surface-based buoyancy south of the outflow, and deep layer flow
generally parallel to the initiating outflow boundary, some
opportunity exists for training of cells this morning from near
Tuscaloosa into the southern sections of Birmingham Metro this
morning.  Some of this rainfall was occurring in areas that have
already experienced 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours,
and with wet ground conditions and urban interfaces across the
discussion area, potential exists for excessive runoff issues in
the short term.

Fast southerly low-level flow should allow for at least modest
northward retreat of the outflow boundary along with a northward
shift in the primary axis of training convection, though the
northward retreat may not be as rapid as recent mesoanalyses
indicate.  Meanwhile, additional upstream convection over central
Mississippi should gradually mature while moving toward the
Tuscaloosa-to-Birmingham corridor this morning.  This corridor
could see a locally enhanced threat of isolated flash flooding
over the next 2-4 hours or so (through 19Z/1p central).

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34228682 33838585 33108582 32558693 32388875
            32808939 33598868 33928817