Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Northeast GA...Western SC...Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102200Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...The combination of increasing moisture transport, rising
instability, and steadfast southeasterly upslope flow will cause
hourly rainfall rates to surpass 1"/hr in mountainous terrain at
times. With soils growing more saturated, areas of flash flooding
are likely to occur. Locations most at risk are in steep/rugged
terrain where landslides are also possible.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis showed Post-T.C. Isaias over
central AL with its frontal structure consisting of an occluded
front stretching into western GA, a cold front extending south
towards the FL Panhandle, and an elongated stationary front over
central GA and SC. Doppler radar and GOES East visible imagery
show a cluster of storms along a pre-frontal trough over eastern
GA and southern SC, with renewed areas of showers and storms
forming in central GA close to the stationary front. Storms around
Augusta, GA produced between 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates and
farther north, 15-minute rainfall rates per MRMS have approached
0.40", suggesting >1"/hr rates have occurred in some spots. These
rates already caused MRMS CREST max unit streamflows to steadily
rise over the past hour with some readings approaching 200 cfs/smi
in western SC.

Both GFS/ECMWF model guidance show an IVT >800 kg/m/s turning N-NE
over central SC and oriented at the southern Appalachians between
00-06Z. As the stationary front to the south lifts as a warm front
this evening, elevated instability (MUCAPE) will also advance
northward with the 20Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS showing between 250-500
J/kg of MUCAPE in western SC/NC. Latest 18Z HREF probabilistic
guidance shows 6-hr QPF > 5-yr ARI probabilities up to 40-50% in
the Blue Ridge of western NC between 00-06Z this evening. When
accounting for prolonged upslope enhancement and warm cloud layers
over 12,000ft deep just east of the higher terrain, the
environment is becoming increasingly ripe for flash flooding in
the complex/rugged terrain of the western Carolinas, and
potentially as far south and west as northeast GA.

There is concern for landslides in the eastern most mountains of
the Carolinas this evening. Should training thunderstorms ensue
along these mountain ranges, locally significant flash flooding
will be possible this evening with additional localized rainfall
totals potentially exceeding 4". Residents should ensure they have
a reliable way of receiving warnings and updates issued from their
local WFOs and local officials this evening.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36618120 36598097 36508085 36358075 36108074
            35798081 35348102 34918134 33788203 33978317
            34338368 34798388 35328380 35448357 35598311
            35808267 36008212 36218169 36438155 36578142