Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...southwestern Tennessee and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140700Z - 141000Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rainfall are materializing along/just
north of I-40 in eastern Arkansas and should reach the Memphis, TN
metro area soon.  Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...An axis of heavier rainfall from deep convection has
materialized from near Beebe to West Memphis over the past hour or
so. The cells are likely occurring due to modest isentropic ascent
atop stable low-levels from prior convection this
afternoon/evening.  Mesoanalyses depict 15-20 kt southwesterly
850mb flow originating from a pool of moderate instability over
southwestern Arkansas that seems to be supporting ongoing
convection.  The convective axis (east-west; parallel to steering
flow aloft) is training, while near 2-inch PW values are
supporting efficient rain rates nearing 1.5 inches/hr northwest of
Forrest City.

Of concern is the potential for this training band of convection
to persist eastward into portions of Memphis Metro, which has
received an estimated 3-5 inches of rainfall in the past 12 hours.
 FFG thresholds remain low from this prior rainfall (less than 1
inch/hr in spots), and with urban surfaces in line for additional
rainfall, flash flooding is possible.  The persistence of this
cluster with eastward extent is in doubt, however, and cells
migrate farther away from the source region of surface-based
instability over southwestern Arkansas through the next 2-4 hours.
 It is increasingly likely that 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur
into southwestern Tennessee that could pose some flash flood risk.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35529005 35428954 35208941 34928976 34929083
            35039112 35299123 35459085