Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...northern LA into southeastern AR and
central/northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250356Z - 250810Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
northern LA into southeastern AR and central/northern MS over the
next few hours. Peak hourly rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches are
expected within axes of training.

Discussion...A broken squall line was observed through radar
imagery at 0330Z from southeastern AR into northern/western LA and
far eastern TX. This feature was located out ahead of an
approaching shortwave and embedded vorticity max which extended
from northeastern TX into southeastern OK, moving toward the ENE.
Low level convergence, ahead of the associated surface cold front
and along/north of the system's warm front, was helping to focus
the SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms which has had a
history of training and 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour since at
least 01Z. The lower MS Valley also resided beneath the diffluent
right entrance region of a 100 to 120+ kt jet max centered over
the central MO/IL border which was aiding lift within the moist
(1.5-1.7 inch PWs) and unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) environment.

As the shortwave and embedded vorticity max continue to advance
downstream toward the ENE, The axis of thunderstorms will follow
suit, with areas of embedded training within the SW to NE oriented
mean steering flow. The environment will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches at times, which is below FFG
values for southern portions of this MPD, but at or above it for
AR into northern MS. Therefore, the flash flood threat is
considered possible and should be mainly confined to urban or
otherwise sensitive locations where 2 to 4 inches of rain could
fall in 3 hours or less time.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35088927 35088829 34968780 34368761 33768814
            33018901 32329007 31849104 31289216 30859377
            31139431 31709418 32009364 32549301 33409201
            34709039