Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern/central Alabama, and western/northern
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101354Z - 101954Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern
Mississippi this morning.  This threat will shift eastward while
gradually becoming more isolated through 19Z/1p Central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an extensive,
linear convective complex extending from near Gadsden, AL through
Birmingham, AL and southwestward to near Hammond, LA.  Convection
has trended toward more forward propagation over the past several
hours, but remain capable of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates - especially
across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana where
forward motions are slower (around 20-30 knots) and quality
pre-convective moisture exists.  The storms are in an environment
characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around 1000-1500
J/kg - highest from central Alabama through the New Orleans area)
and 1.4-1.6 inch PW values - both characteristic of typical
profiles supporting deep moist convection and heavy rainfall
rates.  Additionally, some of the activity was falling on areas of
southern Mississippi that have received 5-8 inches of rainfall
over the past 24 hours (particularly near Hattiesburg, Waynesboro,
MS and surrounding areas).  FFGs are near zero in those areas,
supporting an imminent and ongoing flash flood threat there. 
Farther northeast and southeast of the Hattiesburg area, FFGs are
a bit higher (around 1 inch/hr in Alabama - closer to 2-3
inches/hr in Louisiana), suggestive of more scattered flash flood
potential in those area in the short term.

The forward-propagating nature of this complex will result in
storms gradually moving out of the most sensitive, water-logged
areas of the discussion area through the morning and early
afternoon.  The downstream airmass is still supportive of
occasional areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates, promoting flash
flood potential especially in urban and sensitive areas of the
discussion area.  Flash flooding remains most likely in
southeastern Mississippi this morning, with a lesser-concentrated
risk throughout the remainder of the discussion area.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   34318457 33968412 32578415 31058531 30358760
            29228947 29239063 29609114 31409039 32788822
            34228567