Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Adj.
Northwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160445Z - 160845Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of potential localized flash flooding
due to slow moving/training thunderstorms across the Ozark Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic shows a
solid warming/weakening trend to the convective line across much
of the Ozark Plateau.  RAP analysis shows warming low levels and
increasing CINH trends across the remaining well of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the exception remaining along the upwind edge across NE
OK; and this is where the healthiest updrafts remain.  Still,
KINX/KSGF show most are starting to have dominating outflow
patterns.  However, as the dry-line retreated and the mean
upper-level shortwave trough across IA is kicking east; a weakness
in the overall mid-level flow/steering is lying perpendicular to
weakening but sufficient southerly surface to boundary layer/925mb
flow providing solid moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
remaining MLCAPE axis. Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s.  With this
convergence and steering flow parallel to the boundary (and
slacking), training or increased downdraft residency may allow for
a narrow axis of enhanced rainfall rates up to 1.75"/hr for a
potential of localized 2-3" total.   Beside naturally lower FFG
due to complex terrain across the Ozark Plateau, even further west
into NE OK, FFG values are locally lower with hourly values less
than 1.5-2" and 3" values less than 3".  So an isolated incident
or two of flash flooding remains possible more likely over the
next few hours (through 06z) than into late overnight hours.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37839174 37359132 36779169 36529332 36329416
            36139587 36179651 36579663 36769627 36979505
            37359379 37769264