Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EDT Thu May 07 2026

Areas affected...southern Alabama, far southwestern Georgia,
southeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070647Z - 071247Z

Summary...Areas of training thunderstorms are likely to continue
for the next several hours, with isolated instances of flash
flooding possible through 13Z/8a CDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to move eastward
across the discussion area at around 40 knots while producing
areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.  The heaviest of rain rates are
currently displaced just south and east of where heavier rain fell
earlier today near Montgomery/Selma and near Collins, MS --
although deep convection continues to redevelop across
southeastern Mississippi along and just ahead of a synoptic front
extending from Baton Rouge through Meridian to near Birmingham. 
Moist/unstable thermodynamic profiles and low-level/850mb
confluence will continue to support new updraft development across
southeastern Mississippi for several hours, with storms spreading
eastward through southern Alabama and far southwestern Georgia
through 13Z this morning.

Any flash flood risk within this regime will exist 1) where
convective training is most pronounced within the discussion area
and 2) where scattered convection can repeat across the
Montgomery/Selma/Collins areas where prior rainfall has lowered
FFGs to near zero.  Given the magnitude of prior rainfall in some
of these areas, flood impacts may still be ongoing and could be
exacerbated locally.  New instances of flash flooding are also
possible.  Local rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are likely through
13Z - particularly from Laurel/Hattiesburg eastward to Troy, AL
and areas near/south of Columbus, GA.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33548583 33178442 32328375 31438378 30878454
            30908730 30778950 31188994 31668978 32348879
            33178731