Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0008
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA, southern MS, western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091514Z - 092000Z

SUMMARY...Peak rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected to produce
at least Isolated flash flooding from northern portions of
southeastern LA into southern MS and parts of western AL through
20Z. 6-hr rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible, through
these higher end totals should remain rather isolated should they
materialize.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 15Z showed a axis of heavy rain
oriented ENE from the LA/MS border across the I-55 corridor into
south-central MS and portions of western AL. This axis was located
within an area of pre-frontal low level convergence, augmented by
rain-cooled outflow that extended from near Baton Rouge, LA to
Hattiesburg, MS to Thomasville, AL. 925 mb winds of 25-35 kt were
observed over southeastern LA into southern MS, converging along
this axis which was oriented parallel to the mean steering flow,
supporting training. Hourly rainfall near and just over 2 inches
has been observed near the LA/MS border within the past 2 hours
where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches were
representative of the environment, reported on the 12Z soundings
from LIX and JAN.

Short term guidance from the RAP shows similar low level flow
continuing over the next few hours with the establishing cold pool
likely serving as a focus for renewed convective development
through 18Z to 19Z from the LA/MS border into southern MS. ENE
steering flow is likely to support cells moving downstream into
western AL while some upstream development occurs back to the WSW.
The environment is capable of supporting hourly rainfall in the
2-3 inch range, although 1 to 2 inches per hour will be more
common. Localized potential for 3 to 5 inches over the next 6
hours will exist with at least localized flash flooding appearing
likely, especially within any urban areas and as high rain rates
overcome dry antecedent conditions.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   32848772 32518711 31988718 31498776 30978897
            30569019 30009159 30399210 31319161 32108995
            32618877