Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, southern Ohio, and
eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172250Z - 180150Z

Summary...Some potential for flash flooding will persist for a few
more hours along the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the area. 
Latest radar/satellite depicts scattered showers and thunderstorm
activity continuing to migrate southeastward across the region. 
Areas of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW continue along
and just ahead of a front entering the region from the northwest,
supporting continued heavy rainfall.  Despite the progressive
nature of this convection, ground conditions remain sensitive to
additional rainfall, and FFG thresholds are generally in the 1
inch/hr range (locally lower).  The moisture/instability combo may
result in spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times, though most
areas are experiencing 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rates due to 20-25 knot
storm motions.  It is not out of the question that a few
additional instances of flash flooding occur over the next 2-3
hours given the sensitive/wet ground conditions.  A cold front
over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky will continue to sweep
southeastward, ending the threat of heavy precipitation from
northwest to southeast through the early evening.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39678188 39498008 38937946 38547946 37808012
            37558188 37488305 38698374