Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0091
(Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0091

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Areas affected...Southeastern LA...Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080611Z - 081100Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall associated with a long-lived supercell is
expected to continue through the overnight hours.

Discussion...A long-lived supercell continues to move eastward
across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.  Convergent
low level inflow from the Gulf of Mexico continues to support a
moisture rich environment ahead of an approaching cold front, with
the latest mesoanalysis showing PWs of 1.5-1.7 inches extending
from southwestern Louisiana to central Mississippi.  Meanwhile,
MUCAPEs remain between 1000-2000 J/kg across much of the region. 
Divergent flow south of a deep cyclone centered over the lower
Missouri Valley continues to support large-scale lift across the
region.   All of this has been supporting areas of heavy rainfall,
as shown by KPOE and KLIX radars -- which have indicated rainfall
rates of over 2 in/hr within some of the strongest cells. 

As these cells continue to move east, heavy rainfall is expected
to remain a threat.  The latest RAP shows an increase in low level
moisture transport, with sustained 850mb winds of 30-40 kts across
southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi over the next
several hours.  While dropping off some, MUCAPEs are expected to
remain at or above 1000 J/kg within the highlighted area.  For the
remainder of the overnight period, the 00Z hi-res guidance, as
well as recent runs of the HRRR, suggest localized amounts of 2-3
inches are likely for portions of the highlighted area, with the
bulk of the heavy rainfall occurring within the next few hours. 
Within the highlighted area, both the operational and parallel
versions of the HREF show high neighborhood probabilities (40km)
for rainfall amounts exceeding 2-inches between 6-12Z.  Given this
area has been dry in recent weeks, the threat for flash flooding
is considered low.  However, these rainfall rates may pose
localized runoff concerns, especially within urbanized areas.

Pereira

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31548997 31338892 30908838 30398854 30338934
            30249038 29929199 30219246 30629171 31129097
           


Last Updated: 212 AM EDT Thu Apr 08 2021
 

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT