WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0181 (2023) |
(Issued at 1112 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
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MPD Selection |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Florida/Fort Lauderdale area
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 130311Z - 130600Z
Summary...Lingering convective activity could exacerbate ongoing
flash flood issues in the discussion area through 06Z or so.
Discussion...Recent convective trends indicate a distinct downtick
in convective intensity from a nearly stationary cluster of cells
that earlier produced 10-20 inches of rainfall near Fort
Lauderdale. Lightning activity has decreased and inland
convection has drifted westward, resulting in a brief break in
rainfall for most areas. However, another cell has developed over
adjacent waters about 5-10 miles southeast of FLL and is
maintaining a very weak mesocyclone while producing spots of 2-3.5
inch/hr rain rates. Per objective analyses, low-level convergence
was greatest near a surface warm front that continues to extend
east-to-west across the general vicinity. The convergence along
the front, combined with 1.7+ PW values and around 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE (highest over water) will continue to support occasional,
isolated convection for the next few hours. A conditional risk of
inland development of this convection exists, which could
exacerbate issues with already inundated areas of the Fort
Lauderdale Metro. Should another cell migrate into the area,
another 1-2 inches of rainfall could fall in a short period of
time.
Cook
ATTN...WFO...MFL...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 26808008 26677992 26517992 26087996 25658020
25928041 26328043 26728028
Last Updated: 1112 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
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