Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Northern OK...Central/Eastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260035Z - 260635Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of supercell thunderstorms will gradually tend
to merge and should evolve into pockets of larger scale MCS
activity overnight. Some isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible going through midnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery continues to
show an increase in supercell thunderstorm activity across the
central Plains as height falls associated with an approaching
mid-level trough interacts with a moistening and increasingly
unstable airmass lifting north.

Some of the area VWP data shows a southerly low-level jet now on
the order of 40 to 50 kts nosing up across central and northern OK
and toward southern KS. The nose of this is promoting a corridor
of stronger moisture convergence and instability transport which
is favoring the more concentrated grouping of supercells near and
to the north Enid, OK, and to the east of Medicine Lodge, KS.

Given the rapid destabilization of the airmass more regionally
across central/northern OK and into central and eastern KS, the
convection should continue to generally grow upscale with multiple
clusters of supercells that will gradually tend to merge and lead
to a more organized and regional MCS threat overnight.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 3500 to 4500 J/kg across areas
of northern OK, with lesser magnitudes over central and eastern
KS, but with a nocturnally enhanced low-level jet expected
overnight ahead of the approaching upstream trough, there should
be a substantial pool of instability for well-organized convection
and especially with impressive deep layer shear parameters
yielding persistently strong updrafts.

Rainfall rates should increase over the next several hours from
the enhanced moisture and instability transport, with some of the
stronger supercells capable of yielding 1.5 to 2.5 inch/hour
rainfall rates, and especially with any cell-mergers.

Areas of far northern OK and especially southern KS are likely to
see the heaviest rainfall totals going through midnight given the
proximity of stronger moisture convergence/low-level jet forcing,
and some of these locations may see 3 to 5 inches of rain.
However, areas farther north across central and eastern KS may see
other more discretely evolving clusters of strong convection that
favor locally similar amounts.

Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible over the next several hours as this evening's convection
continues to organize and grow upscale.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40099637 39839520 38899464 37509464 36679523
            36179618 36029737 36189832 36879867 38279851
            39099822 39889748