Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0330
(Issued at 1017 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 )

MPD Selection

Graphic for MPD #0330

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Central and Northern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110215Z - 110630Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and extremely efficient showers and
thunderstorms continue to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic with an
emphasis on central and northern VA. Additional flash flooding
(some of it significant) is expected to continue going through

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show the
development of slow-moving and extremely efficient showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front settles southward down through the
Mid-Atlantic region and interacts with a very moist and at least
modestly unstable airmass. As this has been occurring this
evening, there has been the slow eastward advance of a mid-level
shortwave impulse across central and northern VA which is yielding
at least some deeper layer ascent.

Rainfall rates have been extremely heavy over the last few hours,
with rates locally exceeding 4 inches/hr, and multiple areas in
and around the Culpeper area seeing as much as 8 inches of rain
over the last 3 to 4 hours. Extensive areas of flash flooding have
been occurring over this region.

Rainfall rates are expected to remain extremely high at least in
the short-term where convection remains more focused, and
especially given the pooling of moisture/instability, and axis of
stronger low-level convergence and mid-level forcing along the the
front. Additional areas of showers and thunderstorms have been
seen becoming concentrated south of Culpeper and closer into areas
near Charlottesville and also down into the Richmond metropolitan
area over the last hour. Thus, there will likely be an uptick in
flash flooding concerns across these areas going through the
midnight time frame.

Expect locally an additional 5+ inches of rain where the more
concentrated activity sets up going through 06Z. Thereafter, there
should be sufficient waning of the boundary layer instability to
allow the convection to weaken and with rain rates diminishing.




LAT...LON   38977846 38857769 38297716 37887646 37377619
            37057659 37117716 37337783 38057896 38617916

Last Updated: 1017 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT