Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300433Z - 300900Z

SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding will
remain possible over the next 3-4 hours across west-central TX.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr will be likely with spotty rates of
2 to 3+ possible through 08Z.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed an elongated MCS over
west-central TX, extending from south of FST to near DYS and COM.
Southeasterly low level flow of 15-25 kt was located from southern
TX into the convective complex with the stronger winds located
closer to the Rio Grande and West TX, dropping off in magnitude
with eastward extent. The source region of the southeasterly winds
contained 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3 to 1.8 inches of PWAT.
Sufficient shear for organized cells was also present along and
ahead of the MCS via 04Z SPC mesoanalysis data. While a cold front
was dropping southward across the region, a cold pool also appears
to be getting better organized with numerous outflow boundaries
preceding the convective axis, with the MCS following a general
movement toward the SE, into the moist and unstable inflow.

This general movement is expected to continue over the next few
hours with embedded peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, although
occasional embedded higher rates will be possible where brief west
to east training develops. Training will be most likely along the
southwestern flank of the complex where line orientation is more
favored to align with the mean steering flow. The southwestern
edge of the complex, located near the stronger low level flow, may
also favor thunderstorm development just ahead of the advancing
line due to the presence of the Hill Country terrain and a
relative max in uninhibited instability as seen on SPC
mesoanalysis data over the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley.
Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches cannot be ruled out
along with 2-4 inches of additional rainfall through 10 or 11Z.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31979894 31939840 31599793 31199776 30469818
            29299908 28990028 29480148 29890315 30550324
            30790266 30850174 31030123 31470050 31700001
            31939945