Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas affected...Hudson Valley into northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311358Z - 311905Z

SUMMARY...Risk for localized rainfall of two inches in three hours
makes for a potential flash flood concern this morning for the
Hudson Valley and southern Vermont/New Hampshire, then farther
north through this afternoon

DISCUSSION...983mb surface low now over western Mass is quickly
lifting north-northeast. Bands of moderate rain are wrapping and
pivoting around this low back over the central Hudson Valley and
southern VT. Within this area, gauge reported hourly rainfall has
generally peaked in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range with upstream 3hr
rainfall up to 2 inches in the Catskills.

MUCAPE per the 12Z RAP is around 250 J/kg through this zone,
rising to 500 J/kg east of the low in the warmer sector. Low level
convergence to the northwest of the surface low and locally strong
upper level divergence/diffluence within the left-exit region of
an upper jet streak off of the Mid-Atlantic coast is aiding
rainfall rates as well as topographic lift.

Through ~20Z, the surface low will track through northern New
England and produce a rainfall axis of 1 to 3 inches. However,
this area of New England has not been as wet compared to locations
farther south, so any instances of flash flooding should be
isolated in nature.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON   45287145 45147089 43167114 42587244 41937347
            42407432 43747349 45057211