Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...north-central to northeastern OK into
southeastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030524Z - 030930Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain from north-central and
northeastern OK into southeastern KS may result in an isolated
spot or two of flash flooding over the next 3-4 hours. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible at times.

Discussion...05Z radar imagery and surface observations showed an
outflow boundary that arced from just west of EMP, southward into
OK, then southwestward to near SWO and toward I-40. The portion
over KS has been advancing eastward at 30-40 kt but the southern
portion over OK has been slower to progress east, resulting in a
SW to NE orientation of the boundary over northern OK, similar to
the mean steering flow.

A broken axis of thunderstorms was following the outflow with
roughly 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place just ahead of it. The
outflow boundary is expected to continue advancing east and
southeast through KS/OK over the next few hours while a ~40 kt low
level jet at 850 mb, oriented from the SSW, overruns the outflow
allowing for continued thunderstorm developing and periods of
short term SW to NE training. Within axes of training, rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible and localized totals near 3
inches through 09Z may occur over portions of
north-central/northeastern OK into southeastern KS.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37539459 36819470 36199549 35799668 35839758
            36199774 36539728 37529581