Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Jun 03 2025

Areas affected...Central and Northern OK...Southern and Eastern
KS...Central to Northeast MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031835Z - 040035Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with additional areas of
flash flooding will continue into the evening hours across
southern/eastern KS and into western/northern MO. Gradually this
threat will settle down into central and northern OK. Given the
high rainfall rates and localized persistence of the stronger
storms, areas of significant and life-threatening flash flooding
are expected.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
southwest to northeast axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of south-central to northeast KS along with some
adjacent areas of northwest MO. The activity continues to be aided
by the persistence of a convergent moist/unstable low-level jet of
30 to 40+ kts out ahead of a cold front. Relatively stronger
mid-level forcing associated with an ejecting shortwave trough is
interacting with MLCAPE values of as much as 1500 to 2500 J/kg and
PWs of 1.75+ inches, and this has been resulting in a substantial
amount of organization and persistence of convection over the last
few hours.

Already there has been locally considerable flash flooding
impacting areas around Wichita and Emporia, and some rainfall
totals locally since mid-morning of 5 to 7+ inches.

Additional expansion of showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the next few hours which will extend northeastward into more
areas of western and northern MO to the southeast of a cold front.
However, there will also be the development and organization of
convection deep into the unstable warm sector involving central
and northern OK where recent visible satellite trends indicate an
increasingly agitated CU/TCU field. LightningCast data shows
convection is imminent across these areas.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms heading into the evening
hours will be capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour, and some
additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 6+ inches will be
possible which is consistent with the latest HREF/REFS guidance
and the HRRR solutions.

Areas of flash flooding will continue, with a general increase in
the coverage of flash flooding expected over the next several
hours. Multiple major metropolitan areas will continue to be at
risk for seeing significant and life-threatening flash flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40379254 40109173 39399143 38459215 37309439
            35519679 35339838 36099884 37629783 38919648
            39789501 40169397