Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...southeastern Alabama, Florida Panhandle, and
southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191718Z - 192318Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection on the southeastern periphery of
Tropical Cyclone Claudette will continue a risk of flash flooding
especially in the Florida Panhandle and vicinity through 00Z.

Discussion...Most of the heaviest convection on the southeastern
periphery of Claudette has been confined to one or two dominant
convective bands over the past 6 hours or so.  The bands are
focused along a strongly confluent low-level wind field, which has
supported ascent within a very moist (2.2+ inches PW) and unstable
(2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment, allowing for areas of 2-3.5
inch-per-hour rainfall rates at times.  The bands have produced
widespread areas of 2-5 inches of rain and isolated amounts as
high as 7.5.  The highest amounts have so far been confined to
land areas nearer the stronger instability (located within 100 mi
of the coast and areas offshore).

These trends should continue through the evening hours.
HRRR/HREF/Nam and other guidance suggests that at least one or two
bands of convection should persist or gradually become more
elongated from southwest to northeast across the discussion area.
The localized training of convection will continue to allow for
widespread heavy rain to shift eastward, with many areas of 2-5
inch rainfall (and locally higher amounts) to occur across the
discussion area.  The rainfall rates have overwhelmed flash flood
guidance (especially in flood-prone areas) and resulted in flash
flood impacts - especially in the Pensacola area recently.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32648425 32248332 31328294 30888307 30418348
            30178409 29738512 29638587 30128700 30968719
            31748690 32298635 32508549