Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0377
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...central and northeast OK into far southeast KS,
southwest MO, and northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061000Z - 061400Z

Summary...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an
associated mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is producing
1.0-2.5"/hr rainfall and may result in additional 3-5" through 9AM
CDT. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...An MCS has matured overnight and is progressing
through northern and eastern portions of OK at this hour. Very
heavy rainfall accompanies this MCS (1-2" hourly totals), and
particularly so ahead and downstream of a distinct MCV over far
northeast OK (up to 2.5" hourly totals and 15-min totals up to
1.5", per MRMS estimates). While the 30-40 kt low-level jet that
is driving moisture transport and lift is expected to rapidly
weaken (to 25 kts or less) over the next several hours, these
rainfall rates will likely result in continued/additional isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding (given 1-hr/3-hr FFGs as
low as 1.0-1.5" and 2.0-2.5", respectively). SBCAPE of 500-2500
J/kg, PWs of 1.5-2.0" (between 90th percentile to near record
values, per OUN and SGF sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear of 35-55 kts will sustain the heavy rainfall in the short
term. 06z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities indicate 40-50%
chances for 2"/1-hr exceedance, and 30-60% odds for 3"/3-hr
exceedance (maximized over far northeast OK into adjacent portions
of AR/MO).

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37749333 37409254 35909386 34559644 35189815
            35579807 36039772 36459722 36639679 37049616
            37249522 37339450 37419418