Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070428Z

Summary...Supercells continue to develop over West Texas this
evening with slow motion and repeating activity brings rainfall
rates up to 2"/hr which should cause scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly for areas impacted by the storms last
evening.

Discussion...Scattered supercells will continue to develop along a
surface trough set up west to east over the Caprock and through
the Lubbock metro area. There is a notable risk for intense,
long-lived supercells, much like last night in this same area due
to an environment with SBCAPE of 4000+ J/kg, PW 1.4-1.6 inches
(near or above the 90th percentile), and 50-60 kts of deep layer
(0-6 km) shear. Low-level Sly flow of 15kt is providing fresh
inflow which will only increase overnight as it intensifies into a
low-level jet. 

Recent HRRRs are much to late with development in this area, but
the RRFs is much more energetic and decent with the current
depiction. The 6hr QPF from the RRFS is 2-4" in this west-east
corridor and helps form the basis for this discussion (along with
upscale growth to existing cells at this time. Congealing activity
should allow for repeating heavy rain while upwind propagation
should allow for longer duration of heavy rain. It is worth noting
that giant hail is also a risk with this activity. Very intense
rainfall rates up to 2-3"/hr would result in scattered flash
flooding, particularly for urban environments like Lubbock and
where the storms tracked last night which also intersected
Lubbock. Scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely for the outlook area.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34320156 34329887 33109866 32820029 33150318
            34090327