Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern KS...Far northwest TX
Panhandle...Northern & Central OK...Adj SW MO/NW AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070450Z - 070930Z

SUMMARY...Expanding convective coverage as clusters grow upscale
into a quick moving MCS.  Sub-hourly 1-1.5" with potential for
some repeating on southern flank results in scattered spots of
3-4" totals.  Given saturated grounds, localized incidents of
flash flooding are likely. 

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and RADAR mosaic depict multiple
clusters of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern TX
panhandle and west-central OK in advance of expanding linear
convective complex across SW KS into the OK Panhandle.  The latter
has quick momentum at the leading edge of stronger larger scale
height-falls/solid DPVA across N KS at the right entrance of an
expanding/jet streak that is already 90kts across NEB at 300mb. 
The combination is providing very strong dynamic ascent and
evacuation for developing convective line and MCV across
west-central KS.  As such strong WAA has been over-spreading much
of OK into S KS from untapped very unstable environment with 3000
J/kg of MLCAPE.  The strong WAA at the nose of a broad weakly
veered 25-30kt LLJ is providing the solid isentropic
ascent/moisture convergence along a lingering deep layer moisture
pool in OK which is sparking pre-linear MCS thunderstorms.

With very broad up/downdraft channels and ample 2" total PWats,
cells are becoming very efficient rainfall producers as severe
capabilities slowly diminish.  Sub-hourly totals of 1-2" have been
observed even though deep layer steering allows for some
progressive forward motions.   These cells are setting the stage
and further moistening the upper-layers of an already fairly
saturated grounds, especially east of I-35.  So it is possible
even these pre-cursory cells may result in localized flash
flooding conditions prior to the main line. Additionally,
proximity to the southern edge of the moisture/instability, may
allow for a favored alley for training given shifting too far
south may see greater dry/stable air ingestion and favoring
maintenance north of the gradient in south-central OK.

RADAR trends show, strong vertical ascent along the leading edge
of the linear complex into Pawnee/Stafford county KS, potentially
further developing to edge of 700mb WAA ascent band north of the
Flint Hills in east-central KS. Strengthening MCV under
aforementioned strong upper-level support will allow for increased
back-shearing of the complex with favorable mid-level inflow jet
likely helping to maintain broad moderate shield precipitation in
the northern rotor of the MCS near the MCV for prolonged moderate
rainfall as well across central KS.   However, increasing concern
is along the southern rotor of the MCS where forward propagation
vectors will be slightly reduced allowing for increased orthogonal
exposure to the broad southerly LLJ.  As such, flanking cells will
have a greater potential for training but also having best
moisture/instability flux for strongest updrafts capable of 2"/hr.
  This may result in a streak/swath of enhanced rainfall totals of
3-4" across northeast TX panhandle and likely along/north of I-40,
but with solid DPVA/expanding WAA, MCS will expand for broader
area of enhanced rainfall potential into Northeast OK and
eventually southwest MO/NW AR toward 10z.  Forward propagation
will likely limit significant totals but spots of 3-4" in less
than 3hrs will exceed FFG values over this saturated ground (RSM
0-40cm of 70-75%).  As such, flash flooding is considered likely
overnight.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38609681 38359567 37859488 37479445 36779412
            35649436 35079520 34889646 34919786 35029913
            35320023 36470222 37080177 37659982 38399875
            38579789