Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Texarkana...Northern LA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080730Z - 081300Z

SUMMARY...Continued upstream redevelopment and repeating across
Texarkana to add additional 2-4" totals continuing to pose risk of
possible localized flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows main shortwave across Ohio River
Valley being pressed by stronger synoptic height-falls across the
central Plains bleeding into the Ozark Plateau.  This push
continues to drive northwesterly flow/drier air to sharpen the
stationary front across the Red River into the Delta Region of the
Mississippi River Valley.  Broad southerly to southwesterly
surface to boundary layer flow across TX into N LA remains
providing strong deep layer moisture convergence impinged against
the front.  Stronger cluster of cells moved right of the mean flow
entering northern LA left a wake of 1.5-2.5" totals and cold pool
angled from NW to SE crossing McCurtain county OK, Bowie county
TX, and Miller county AR. 

Upglide ascent of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and low to mid 70s Td
air has resulted in additional upstream redevelopment with
additional convergence up the Red River with scattered Tcu likely
to further back-fill the downstream cells over the next few hours
as well.   However, flow is near or just past diurnal maxima and
may be further veering reducing the orthogonal ascent/convergence
with time.  Still, Given ample deep layer moisture to 2" and slow
southeastward repeating an additional 2-4" totals across SW AR
into N LA remain possible maintaining a low-end potential for
localized flash flooding through daybreak.   Given remaining high
FFG values and inconsistent convective coverage, flash flooding is
still considered possible.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34309478 34039353 33299168 32669124 32219162
            32319256 32769368 33239454 33749511