Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Northwest and North TX, Central
and Southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090025Z - 090600Z

Summary...Localized hourly totals of 2"+ with 3-6 hour totals of
3-5" likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection is rapidly proliferating across
southwestern and central OK and the TX Panhandle into the Big
Country within an extremely unstable environment (MU CAPE
3000-5000 J/kg). While many cells remain discrete (mainly into the
TX Big Country and North TX) with many splitting supercells and
deviate cell motions, storms are becoming much more linearly
organized over the TX Panhandle into western OK, as a cold pool
becomes established within an area of broad low-level convergence
(situated between a cold front near the OK/TX Panhandle border and
a warm front just to the south). Precipitable water values range
from 1.4-2.0" (between the 90th percentile and max moving average,
per AMA/OUN/FWD sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km)
bulk shear of 40-60 kts (also near or above the 90th percentile).
MRMS estimates indicate very heavy precipitation in association
with the supercells (as much as 1" in 15-min), and hourly
accumulations are as high as 1.5-2.5" (mostly in association with
training convection where storms are organizing linearly).

A chaotic mix of storm modes will continue into the evening, as
the developing MCS continues to grow upscale over the TX Panhandle
into southwestern and central OK with splitting supercells and
merging (possibly organizing into their own smaller clusters/bows)
downstream into the TX Big Country and North TX. Eventually the
MCS will become the dominant force and rapidly propagate into
southern OK and North TX (with the upwind/downwind propagation
vectors favoring ESE-SE movement at 30-50 kts), tracking over
areas that will have already seen heavy precipitation from earlier
discrete convection. Resulting localized 6-hr rainfall totals
(through 06z) of 3-5" are expected (per 18z HREF PMM QPF) with the
most favored corridor along and south of the Red River of the
South (where 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood 3" exceedance
probabilities range from 40-70%, shifted a bit south based on more
recent hourly HRRR/RRFS data, as well as experimental WoFS data).
Merging supercells and training elements will also be capable of
2"+ hourly totals with corresponding HREF 1-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities as high as 20-50%. Given both the extreme hourly
rates and potential for 3-6 hour totals in excess of 3", scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35680155 35440070 35429965 35499884 35689805
            34609564 32829475 31889619 31799831 32400042
            33150143 34150143 35360220