Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1011 PM EDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...East-central AL...Central GA...West-central SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100210Z - 100700Z

SUMMARY...A corridor of developing thunderstorms within a
favorable training environment may pose a streak of 2-3" totals
with an isolated 4" spot or two.  

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts an elongated trough along the East
Coast States, with a few inflections noted toward the tail end
across the Southeast.  The lead wave is fairly strong and
progressive exiting Upstate SC into central NC while the secondary
wave is a big more elongated west to east across central AL.   VWP
shows deep layered unidirectional flow between the waves allowing
for a favorable west to east training profile. RAP analysis along
with CIRA LPW denotes the axis between the waves is increasingly
confluent but also has allowed for increased theta-E air through
depth for a narrow corridor of 1.75-2" total PWats, as well as
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (favored toward 2000 J/kg
upstream).

Regional RADAR shows, old outflow/bowing segment from older
convection crossing the AL/GA, in front/along the wave, surface to
boundary layer winds appear to be increasing slightly with
enhanced backed flow for convergence/ascent into the mid-level
confluence axis.  As such, EIR and RADAR show increasing
convective activity with spotty stronger updrafts/cooling towers
across central GA into West central SC.   So, while the
inflow/convergence is likely the most limiting factor, it is
currently sufficient for cells capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates.  

Given the length of the corridor and likely consistent
unidirectional flow to maintain training even through a narrow
axis, there should be solid opportunity for training/repeating to
allow for a streak or two of 2-3" in 1-3hrs with perhaps an
isolated 4" spot or two; and while the ground conditions are
relatively dry, especially toward the SC/GA line, these rates and
potential totals have solid potential for isolated FFG exceedance
and possible incident(s) of flash flooding over the next few
hours.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33868108 33428073 32928135 32698193 32278373
            32228479 32308558 32558594 32988591 33218511
            33598324 33818193